Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 30, 2022

NY Gold Futures closed today at 191170 and is trading up about 4.54% for the year from last year's settlement of 182860. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. Up to now, this market has been rising for 7 months going into April suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 187090 yet it is trading below last month's close of 195400.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2015. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 191220 and support forming below at 189630. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 7th at 207880, which was up 30 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 9th. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 6.595% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of April 18th reaching 200300 failed to exceed the previous high of 207880 made back during the week of March 7th. That rally amounted to only three typical reaction weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of March 28th but has closed back above it and is holding for now. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in March 2021.

Critical support still underlies this market at 175200 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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