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Thursday, April 28, 2022 1:17:00 AM
« Reply #428 on: Today at 10:58:50 AM »
Quote CSNY/BOP/Alice
Everyone here knows my feelings about AZ but, to be fair, it was his obsession with WMI's MBS that caused me to sit down in 2014 and go over the SEC filings to figure out how much they could provide towards a recovery.
After I looked at the company's disclosures I understood its management would have tried to protect those MBS they retained (around $135B worth) as crown jewels. (They would not have sold them in the run up to the seizure because they probably wouldn't have got 5% for them (i.e., potential buyers would have smelled blood).) I also understood that if their lawyers were in any way competent they would have protected them through some kind of spendthrift trust device.
I realized the $135B in MBS (plus around $30B in credit card receivables) would grow organically. I discounted the $135B to a nominal amount of about $20B, then, understanding the players would not distribute that value, capitalized the figure and saw its potential value. I realized Dmdmd1 was spot on and adjusted my figures to utilize a recovery of $400B.
AZ is incorrect about 75/25 but deserves credit for focusing on WMI's guts and thereby showing us what it protected and how.
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