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Re: smith199 post# 6344

Thursday, 04/21/2022 12:39:00 PM

Thursday, April 21, 2022 12:39:00 PM

Post# of 7900
API Monthly Statistical Report ‘MSR’, Released 4/21/2022. API Statistics Department & Office of the Chief Economist

For Notable Chart Details and Data By Section see ‘MSR’ pdf link: https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Monthly%20Statistical%20Report/2022-04/API-Monthly-Statistical-Report-Mar-2022.pdf

Petroleum Facts at a Glance:https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Monthly%20Statistical%20Report/2022-04/Petroleum-Facts-at-a-Glance-March-2022.pdf

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

*U.S. petroleum demand (20.4 mb/d) slipped in March from an exceptionally high February level (21.6 mb/d).

*U.S. refinery activity and production of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) rose, including a record high for NGLs.

*As Russia’s war on Ukraine increased international prices by more than domestic ones, U.S. petroleum exports rose.

*U.S. crude oil commercial inventories (ex-SPR) fell to their lowest for March since 2014.


In March, U.S. petroleum demand of 20.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) fell by 1.3 mb/d from its exceptional February level, the highest for any month since Aug. 2005. The monthly decrease was driven by 1.0 mb/d lower demand for other oils – intermediate products in refining and petrochemicals that enable consumer products like medical plastics, films, and packaging – that have been essential with the pandemic. Distillate fuel oil demand also fell by 0.4 mb/d m/m from February, consistent the reports that freight trucking activity could have weakened. Motor gasoline demand increased, however, despite record high nominal prices at the pump.

Supply responded in March. Production of U.S. crude oil (11.7 mb/d) and NGLs (5.7 mb/d) each increased by 0.1 mb/d m/m from February. For NGLs, this was the highest production on record since 1973. Also, the U.S. refining capacity utilization rate eclipsed 90% in March for the first time since 2018. These supply responses came at the same time that U.S. crude oil and refined product exports accelerated, due to the Russia’s war on Ukraine having spurred international oil prices to the largest premium over domestic ones since June 2019. Consequently, U.S. total petroleum exports rose by 19% m/m (1.5 mb/d) in March and returned the U.S. to being a petroleum net exporter for the first time since Oct. 2021.

Leading economic indicators remained mixed. API’s Distillate Economic Indicator™ suggested slower but solid growth of U.S. industrial production and broader economic activity (please see the following chart for details). However, the Univ. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell in March and has remained lower than in any prior month in the past decade. Historically this index has been a leading indicator of changes in consumer spending that constituted more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy in Q4 2021 per the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Demand
• Highest U.S. petroleum demand (20.4 mb/d) for March since 2018. – Solid motor gasoline demand (8.7 mb/d) as urban commuting resumed. – Distillate demand dropped along with freight trucking. – Jet fuel demand returned to over 1.5 mb/d. – Highest March residual fuel oil demand since 2013. – Other oils’ demand (5.9 mb/d) dropped from record levels.

Prices & Macroeconomy
• U.S. motor gasoline prices reached a record high.
• Leading indicators highlight industrial growth and a rebound in consumer sentiment.

Supply
• U.S. crude oil production (11.7 mb/d) increased slightly; record high NGL production (5.7 mb/d).

International trade
• A surge in refined product exports drove a return to U.S. petroleum net exports.
Industry operations
• As U.S. refining activity accelerated in March, its capacity utilization rate exceeded 90%.

Inventories
• Crude oil inventories fell to their lowest for March since 2014.



PETROLEUM FACTS AT A GLANCE – April 2022 RELEASE

1. Total U.S. supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and other liquids in March 2022: 18,552,000 b/d, up by 1,776,000 b/d compared with March 2021 (March 2021: 17,376,000 b/d) [API]

2. U.S. crude oil production in March 2022: 11,682,000 b/d (of which 443,000 b/d was Alaskan) (March 2021: 11,160,000 b/d). U.S. production of natural gas liquids in March 2022: 5,730,000 b/d (March 2021: 5,116,000 b/d). [API]

3. Total petroleum products delivered to the domestic market in March 2022: 20,350,000 b/d (March 2021: 19,204,000 b/d). [API]

4. U.S. petroleum exports in March 2022: 9,169 ,000 b/d (March 2021: 7,679,000 b/d). [API] 5. U.S. petroleum trade balance contracted by 1,113,000 b/d to imply March 2022 net exports of 504,000 b/d (March 2021: 609,000 b/d net imports). [API]
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