I am a little concerned on the quoted $ 195 million in revenue from Sri Lanka.
A 500 TPD system will operate for about 330 days per year which allows for holidays, planned and unplanned outages and the like. This suggests some 165k NT per year of waste which is totally doable in Sri Lanka.
At 400 litres of fuel per ton (MSW with the local mix of plastics) this equates to 66 million litres annually. A quick Google search suggests a current retail fuel price of $ 1.10 USD or 73 million per year. If the inputs were solely plastics and avoiding contamination from MSW or high moisture, you might get 550 litres per ton or about 93 million litres per year, At current retail, this is about 102 million USD per year.
If you switch to making power, you lose some of the tank ready fuels. A plant of this size would make say 15 Mwhr. In a given year, this is slightly under 119k Mwhr. The current price for power sold in Sri Lanka is about $ 55 per Mwhr which suggests if we make power only, the revenue is about $ 7 million.
When it comes to carbon credits, even with high siding the price at $ 100 USD if they can be sold in the EU, is about $ 33 million. The higher the percentage of plastics the lower the carbon offset revenue.
Whether we talk fuel or power, the distributor will want their cut and the consumers will not pay more. This means that the revenues have to be less than the estimates found above. To sell carbon credits, look at losing about 10% or so for selling costs assuming the buyers will accept the validated credit from Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka has a lot of dumps. They just pitch garbage everywhere. However, tipping fees are still quite low. Even in similar equatorial countries, $ 10 USD per ton would be very aggressive. This would be less than $ 2 million.
The bottom line is that I come up with significantly less gross revenue. We need to keep in mind that the after tax cash flow when you back out the debt service cost there may not be sufficient available cash to our company for several years.
