Tuesday, February 06, 2007 3:39:46 PM
Thanks.
Event Likelihood Estimated Change in Share Price Weight Expected Outcome
General Market - - 1 -
General Market Up >10% 30% 0.15 - 0.05
General Market Down >10% 70% -0.15 - -0.11
General Market - - - -0.06
CX717 - - 3 -
CX717 Dropped 30% -0.3 - -0.09
CX717 AD only 30% 0.3 - 0.09
CX717 AD &ADHD 30% 2.5 - 0.75
CX717 - - - 0.75
BP Deal - - 2 -
BP ND Deal <$5M 60% 0.5 - 0.30
BP ND Deal $5-10M 30% 1 - 0.30
BP ND Deal >$10M 10% 2 - 0.20
BP Deal - - - 0.80
Financing - - 3 -
no more shares 20% 0 - 0.00
<5M more shares 30% -0.25 - -0.08
5-10M more shares 30% -0.4 - -0.12
>10M more shares 20% -0.5 - -0.10
Financing - - - -0.30
Estimated Change in Value @ End 2007 - - - 0.32
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