Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Whalatane]

DAR. Any projections for the EU ...including my own ...are just wild A guess's until we know the reimbursement details.
Most drugs in the EU / UK I believe are sold and dispensed thru govt run plans ...like in Canada. Private insurance plans unlike here in the US , are a small part of the picture .
Therefore unless the govt plan agrees to reimburse the cost of the drug with a low copay ...it's unlikely the patient will go out and pay full retail cost for the drug .

My guess is that the UK and big 4 EU markets will reimburse for at least secondary prevention . So then it's a matter of working out that population in the UK/ EU and what % of those may end up on a Vascepa script in 3 yrs and what it costs in marketing / overhead etc to get there.

I had just made my wild A guess based on US numbers for Brand V , GV and Lovaza combined ...thinking that AMRN should be able to at least achieve those numbers within 3 yrs in the UK / big 4 EU .
That brings me to an enterprise value of $1.8B for the UK / big 4 EU at the end of year 3 of the 10yr EU exclusivity ....and assuming they have turned at least breakeven by this point .

If you are then trying to determine cash flow for the remaining 7 yrs of exclusivity ( for say a DCF of estimate buyout value ) theres a wide variety of assumptions you can play with .
How much of the secondary prevention market have they penetrated by end of yr 3 ...10% , 30 % ??? and how fast is that market growing.
The US market for V, GV and Lovaza combined is from memory growing very slowly . Theres no hockey stick take off .
Is the same likely to happen in the UK/ big 4 EU .....an initial jump and then a slow grind ?

Kiwi