re: sentiment_stocks -
This is religion. There is no using logic here.
What are the options at this point? First, the trial flat out failed, didn’t meet its end-points, treatment does not work. No chance of approval. Second, the trial under-performed expectations, approval is questionable. Third, the trial succeeded and approval is imminent. Fourth, the trial succeeded spectacularly and approval is nigh on guaranteed.
If the trial had actually failed and DC-Vax does not work, then the company would have to disclose that fact, the SAB and the doctors and clinicians would all know that it failed, and they would not be continuing to treat people with DC-Vax, they would not be doing combo trials with it, they would not be writing papers on it, they would not be making presentations about it (subtly). In addition, as you note, the company would not be able to raise money with promises to be able to buy stock at a discount after results are released. The board would have dumped over 100MM shares of soon-to-be worthless stock and the company would not be building out production for a product that will never exist. So anyone saying that the trial failed is simply delusional at this point.
For all of the other possibilities, the best way forward is a peer-reviewed journal article that thoroughly explains the results. If they are marginal, you need to come up with a strong case for why they are good enough for approval. In the other cases, you need to explain the change in end-points, the change in GBM definitions, pseudo-progression, likely the change in guidance from the FDA. In addition, there are sub-types, some of which DC-Vax is better at treating and others that it is not as good at treating. There also needs to be an explanation of why some comparable trials are used versus others. The reason for this is that releasing Top Line Data is about paving the way for eventual approval, raising public awareness, and getting the stock price up. With no explanations to back up the data, we have already seen what will happen to the stock and how public opinion will be shaped.
So the fact that Top Line Data has not been released yet does not indicate anything about the results, it only really indicates that they are in a very complex process and that they need to tread carefully and tie a lot of things together. Which is where religion comes in. When religions were formed, thousands of years ago, people knew a lot less about the formation of the Earth and mankind than we now know. People looked for explanations for why things work and came up with stories to explain them using the things they saw. We now know with some certainty that the world (and Universe) did not begin tens of thousands of years ago in the Garden of Eden. They were off by a half-dozen orders of magnitude. We know that man was not the first creation. We know the sun and moon and stars don’t revolve around the Earth. But that does not stop people believing in religion. Because religion isn’t really about the what, it is about the why. We don’t know why there is a Universe, why the Earth and sun formed, why people evolved, why the rules we observe exist. That is what religion is for, to explain why this all came to be and how to live your life.
And so people use the religious doctrine of Management Incompetence to explain that the trial failed and results have not been released as a result and management is just willfully pushing the date back indefinitely so they can increase their net worth by 0.1% with fat salaries while they transfer NWBO’s assets to their private companies. Even though the delay in releasing TLD indicates nothing about the success of the trial except that it did not fail. Nor can they point to any actual incompetence by management, other than the process has taken a long time and management's over-exuberance in wanting so badly to release the data that they prematurely released a couple of timelines they couldn’t meet.
While those instances should suggest strongly that rather than wanting to delay release indefinitely, management is desperate to release Top Line Data, that is not how things are seen. Similarly, it should be obvious that the decision to push the journal first was not management’s first choice, they wanted to release as soon as possible. Instead, it was the professionals and experts who made that decision and told management to enter into the quiet period and stop talking about all of this.
But the people who want to blame everything on Management Incompetence need to blame someone even if the story of their religion no longer fits the facts. They can’t blame the doctors and clinicians. They can’t blame the SAB. They can’t blame the MHRA or FDA. They can’t blame those performing the peer review or the editors of the journal. Even though those are the people who have the most control over the predicates to release of TLD at this point and who are telling management to stay silent about the process.
I get wanting to have others around who see things the same way and everyone can blame management for being incompetent, for delaying things endlessly, for refusing to provide guidance. I get wanting a simple explanation for what is going on. I understand the frustration with not having results. I feel that every day and my financial situation is eventually going to become an issue. But none of this is productive in my view.
Sorry about the wall of text. Happy Weekend, all!
