DD Support Board and Research Team

[jbsliverer]

Sold mine about a month ago right before the second bad drop in pps, but haven't bought back yet. Just kind of watching for now. An article below states that EV vehicles don't have any direct exposure to the war, but I think they have enough indirect things to make up for it.
Besides food and energy, Ukraine and Russia have quite a bit of metals they export plus an array of other things. All of it is going to have a domino effect. Some effects more delayed than others, but a lot that's already on its way that can't be avoided at this point even if they stop the war tomorrow.

Musk has already stated that his supply was going to get tighter and costs were projected to increase. Plus all of these debates between EV vs ICE forget that ICE has long been hybrid into so much electrical that it won't be made, sold, drove, or repaired without that electrical supply and everything that makes that supply. The vehicles price is determined on how many algorithmic bells and whistles it has to offer.

Sure, the auto makers can increase prices over their cost's making up for some of the more limited production, but that can only go so far. Kind of like the Laffer Curve, you know two points on the graph, first one if they don't charge anything, they make nothing, the other if they charge way too much, they won't make anything either because nobody will want or be able to buy. I can't really see any auto maker anywhere not to have profits down considerably in the near future.

https://theconversation.com/five-essential-commodities-that-will-be-hit-by-war-in-ukraine-177845
4. Metals
Russia and Ukraine lead the global production of metals such as nickel, copper and iron. They are also largely involved in the export and manufacture of other essential raw materials like neon, palladium and platinum.

Fears of sanctions on Russia have increased the price of these metals. With palladium, for example, the current trading price of almost US$2,700 per ounce, up over 80% since mid-December. Palladium is used for everything from automotive exhaust systems and mobile phones to dental fillings. The prices of nickel and copper, which are used in manufacturing and building respectively, have also also been soaring.


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will lower car production by millions of units over two years, S&P says
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/russian-ukraine-war-to-lower-car-production-by-millions-of-units.html

PUBLISHED WED, MAR 16 20222:18 PM EDTUPDATED WED, MAR 16 20227:31 PM EDT
Michael Wayland
@MIKEWAYLAND

S&P Global Mobility on Wednesday downgraded its 2022 and 2023 global light vehicle production forecast by 2.6 million units for both years.
The conflict has caused logistical and supply chain problems as well as parts shortages of critical vehicle components.
European auto production is expected to experience the most disruption, according to S&P.
In this article

BMW3-FF
-2.65 (-3.78%)

A worker attaches a wiring harness to the chassis of an X model SUV at the BMW manufacturing facility in Greer, South Carolina, November 4, 2019.
A worker attaches a wiring harness to the chassis of an X model SUV at the BMW manufacturing facility in Greer, South Carolina, November 4, 2019.
Charles Mostoller | Reuters
DETROIT – The war in Ukraine is expected to lower global light-duty vehicle production through next year by millions of units, according to S&P Global Mobility.

The automotive research firm, formerly known as IHS Markit, on Wednesday downgraded its 2022 and 2023 global light vehicle production forecast by 2.6 million units for both years, to 81.6 million for 2022 and 88.5 million units for 2023.

The conflict has caused logistical and supply chain problems as well as parts shortages of critical vehicle components. Most notably, many automakers source wire harnesses, which are used in vehicles for electrical power and communication between parts, from Ukraine. The problems add to an already strained supply chain due to the coronavirus pandemic and an ongoing shortage of semiconductor chips.

European auto production is expected to experience the most disruption, according to S&P. The firm cut 1.7 million units from its forecast for Europe, including just under 1 million units from lost demand in Russia and Ukraine. The rest of the cuts are from parts shortages involving chips and wiring harnesses caused by the war.

That compares to S&P cutting its North America light-duty vehicle production by 480,000 units for 2022 and by 549,000 units for 2023.

About 45% of Ukraine-built wiring harnesses are normally exported to Germany and Poland, placing German carmakers at high exposure, according to S&P. Automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW have been among the most impacted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine about three weeks ago.

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Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess earlier this week said the war has put the company’s 2022 outlook into question, as the automaker experiences parts problems. He said the company was moving some of its production out of Europe to North America and China in response to war-related supply-chain disruptions.

BMW cut its car division’s 2022 profit margin forecast on Wednesday from 8%-10% to 7%-9%, due to the impact of the unfolding Ukraine crisis.

BMW’s plants will be back to full production next week following the luxury automaker halting or lowering production output at some German plants after the invasion, said the company’s chief technology officer, Frank Weber.

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Weber said the company has worked with suppliers to duplicate, not relocate, the wire harnessing production to attempt to keep jobs in the country.

“When you look at Ukraine, this wire harnessing industry gives work to maybe 20,000 people,” Weber told reporters Wednesday during a remote roundtable. “We didn’t just want to take away the work there.”

In total, S&P on Wednesday said it removed nearly 25 million units from global light-duty vehicle production from its forecast between now and 2030.