I’m impatient too. In the past I’ve shared my analysis of what the fair value and full potential may be here…and full potential is in the hundreds per share. I want to realize it now. I also know I’d be a lot more patient today if the whole bio sector had been flat the past 3-4 months instead of down by nearly 50%, and Anavex was still in the 20’s. Unfortunately, that has not panned out.
I’ve been a holder since 2015, and I’m employed in this sector. I can tell you that at an average burn rate of $2.3M a month, while advancing multiple, late stage trials with > $10B/annual revenue potential….there’s not much better in terms of time/dollar value out there. There are CEOs that take home more than the Anavex annual burn per year. Yes,, it could be faster if we partnered for peanuts or had diluted the stock to something > 100M outstanding shares. I’m not going to play Monday morning cornerback on these decision, other than to point out that Chris has in the neighborhood of 6M options, and I trust his goal is to maximize the potential here. That said, when he makes statements about shareholder value he’s talking about several years…not days, weeks or months. Like you, I still want to see us move faster, buy I accept where we are and that last patient enrolled in the Alzheimer’s study is just finishing up week 40 of 48 this week.
I expect we have another 6 months of waiting before the real deal….a RETT NDA filed, 48-week PDD OLE data (building off the good news today), and Alzheimer’s into Sept/Oct. I honestly think the NDA being filed (our first of many) will create a very large adjustment in fair value, as it implies Pre-NDA dialogue has led to the path to file and brings legitimacy (whether FDA, UK, Canada, TGA…) which I feel is lacking today. That NDA filing could be this Summer. Obviously an approval means so much more…and that first approval anywhere will force the market to drastically recalculate the fair value, which today is off by at least 4x. GLTA.
