The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Scary op-ed on inflation:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-high-forecast-economist-goodhart-cpi-11646837755

When the global economy tanked in March 2020, the rate of inflation looked like it was heading to zero. That made it a surprising moment for former U.K. central banker Charles Goodhart to predict that inflation would hit between 5% and 10% in 2021—and stay high.

Mr. Goodhart reasoned that a seismic shift was under way in the world economy, one that fiscal stimulus and the post-pandemic recovery would only hasten. A long glut of inexpensive labor that had kept prices and wages down for decades...was giving way to an era of worker shortages, and hence higher prices.

…He predicted that inflation in advanced economies will settle at 3% to 4% around the end of 2022 and remain at that level for decades, compared with about 1.5% in the decade before the pandemic.

Caveat: Goodhart's thesis does not account for the sustained low inflation in Japan.