DD Support Board and Research Team

[shajandr]

Wheat and corn futures for 2H2022 delivery are just taking off - 14 year highs today and it is only now STARTING to be realized that Ukraine is gonna be offline this year. Even if the farms wanted to plant this Spring, there is really no way they can get the needed gasoline/diesel, fertilizer, and implement parts/supplies, seedstocks transportation - or financing. These grain prices are going to Pluto, man. And this is just beginning and has a long run to go before the effect gets baked-in to the prices.

There is going to be a very substantial - even catastrophic - shortage of wheat worldwide about this time in 2023 when existing safety stocks worldwide will be exhausted and unable to cover shortfalls.

The price and shortage of supply of wheat will be horrific for places like Egypt.

The USA, Canada, and Australia cannot possibly fill the shortfall with the loss of Ukraine production. Even with increased acreage of wheat planted and assuming PERFECT weather we cannot possibly fill that gap fully.

Food (and I suspect motor fuel and jet fuel/travel) will become brutally expensive.

And that is just agriculture and oil products.

Go look at the movements in futures for aluminum/aluminium, nickel, titanium, and coal (for EU delivery) in the last few days and the lead-up to the invasion. Russia is a MAJOR supplier of all those commodities.

Trade in your PlusOne horde now and buy flour, cereal, dry pasta, frozen meat (chicken, fish, and turkey too), and settle in for a rough at least next two years. This die is already cast for 2022-2023 and likely 2024 also. The world does have a safety stock of grains, but this will be exhausted by next year, and no way is the Ukraine going to be able to come back to even 50 percent of its normal production in the year FOLLOWING whenever the war ends. And even that is an optimistic view.

Learn to like rice and potatoes for your carb foods. And meat (beef/pork/chicken/turkey/fish) is gonna become a luxury for many.