Cycle Trading

[No-Quarter]

More musing/chart sharing on this non-trading week day -

AAII is an individual investor sentiment indicator in use for over 50 years. Brokers ask their clients the question; Where do you believe the market will be in 6 months, up or down? AAII is a measure of the survey results.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

This measure on the below chart is suggesting a large amount of cash has been moved to the sidelines by people like you and me, waiting for a reason to get back in.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29941639090



CPC is another sentiment indicator, this a measure of the put/call ratio.

This measure on the below chart is suggesting a change is coming. IMO, once a catalyst occurs to signal this change (interest rate changes, passing of war concerns, victory over covid, or the like), and optimism returns, that large amount of cash on the sidelines will be put to use, and another bull leg begins.

The reverse of the 2Yr bond yield upward trend I posted yesterday will be the tell. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CPC&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37157871272



https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43553442144

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94226781627