He did not listen to my sage advice. Understandable, most of my advice probably isn't worth much but once-in-a-while I actually know what I am talking about. Plus, it is not like anyone on here really knows who I am or what qualification I have for giving advice.
Investing in general, and especially with a startup BioTech, is all about patience. Sure, you can make money jumping in and out, timing the market, using cost averaging, etc. etc. But the simple fact is that the Market is not a fair playing field and is not driven by perfect information and people do not always act logically or even in their own best interests.
Timing purchases and sales requires being right twice. So even if you have a history of 67% accuracy, that only gives you a 45% chance of hitting both buy and sell. Unpredictable events, from COVID to tensions around Ukraine, to crackdowns in Hong Kong can badly skew your odds and eventually they will catch up with you.
It is all about patience. Setting artificial deadlines is just about the very best way to destroy your objective enthusiasm for a stock. Building up in your mind that they will speak at this conference or publish in that periodical is a recipe for disaster when it does not occur and you feel let down or betrayed. Imagining that their logo on a totebag is a sign of imminent release of TLD, or that changes in volume and short interest are an indicator of coming news are just going to lead to disappointment.
None of us have even 10% of the knowledge and data necessary to make an informed decision about when and how to release TLD. Thinking that we are better informed than the people who actually possess that knowledge and data and the experience and expertise to make those decisions, is the very definition of hubris and self-delusion.
I am not saying you rely on blind faith. I am not saying that you do not follow the breadcrumbs. Quite the opposite. You look for what the company is actually doing. NWBO has not been entirely quiet. They have not been sitting on their laurels. They have been actively moving toward approval and commercialization. They did not PR that the certification of the Sawston facility is a necessary step in receiving approval. They did not PR about the changes in guidelines for regulatory approval. But Flaskworks, Sawston, new endpoints, Regulatory changes, patents, and new GBM definitions are all indicators that they are moving ahead and are on track for quick approval once they have everything in place. You just ned to read a bit into the news.
As long as that progress continues and the pieces are put inexorably in place, I am here and so is my money. I am backing up my faith in the company with a great deal more than hollow words and gestures.
You hear, now and then, someone talking about playing with house money. This is not the sign of a winner. It means the person has already lost. Casinos succeed for a couple of reasons. First, they have a built-in advantage in almost every game. But that is not enough to fleece people. Instead, they rely on a large variety of other schemes. No clocks on the walls, confusing layouts, darkness and other things to make it difficult to leave. They rely on people enjoying the experience and being willing to take some losses as the price of entertainment. They use credits on a machine or chips on the table to sever the link between what you are gambling with and the real money it represents.
And they rely on things like the concept of 'house money' to retake their losses. If you are ahead and you can't leave a loser, then you are more likely to take risks or make bad plays. That is what the casino wants. Just like the free drinks, it is a means of getting you to make mistakes, act recklessly. Remember, at the end of the day it is YOUR money once you win it, not the house's. Allowing them to convince you that the source of the money means you can't lose means you have already lost. Especially as your winnings are taxable.
