VirTra Inc (VTSI)

[sharpchicity]

IMO it's not terribly hard to guesstimate earnings/bookings as the company or federal websites telegraph deliveries and bookings for large orders. And the smaller parts of the business -- warranties, installs, etc -- are relatively stable. Just a matter of organizing everything.

In Q3, i had revenue roughly correct and bookings i was a couple million less partially because i thought spain order would hit in q4. Accounting for that, they still did $1m more than I thought.

For Q4, there were less large preannounced orders and deliveries, so we're stuck looking at smaller police and international things which means margin of error of $1-2m plays a bigger role in the smaller base revenue number. But here's how I break things down... ordered roughly from higher certainty to lower:

Warranty $0.66
STEP $0.55
installation $0.25
software $0.35

FLETC $0.20 (https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_70LGLY21FSSB00081_7015_GS02F0214P_4730)
Ukraine/DoS $0.17 (https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_19AQMM21F4167_1900_SWHARC16D0003_1900)
Spain $0.50 (i expect some to be delivered in Q4 and some in Q1)
Middle East $0.80 (No idea if this will all be delivered in Q4 or partial. Maybe I'm low, here.)
US POLICE $3.50 (I found ~2m+ deliveries via google searches.)
======================
TOTAL $6.98


I have no idea on margins as i still don't have a good feel for inputs. I'll guess 58% as there were lots of simulator deliveries this q. I definitely don't expect another 47% quarter.

OPEX i'll guess between 2.5-3m due to headcount growth, spending on the new office, international travel, and more inventory growth.

So somewhere between 1.05m-1.5m EBITDA and 9-14c EPS.



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Then Q1 and Q2 will include large orders like the rest of Spain delivery, the rest of Middle east, the 1.6m international follow on, 1.1m international follow on, 0.5m FLETC, and the 3m IVAS STP4 order. I'll let folks come to their own conclusion on what that points to for h1 numbers.