Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[10nisman]

I don't think you have the vaguest understanding of our economic situation. That is of course why you offer no ideas only childish questions and accusation.

Good morning to you. And I see you're back to making assumptions. I work in M&A and have done so for decades --- I work with companies and clients in a variety of industries from large cap to small cap (private and public). I have significant restrictions not only on my investment holdings but what I can talk about.

The talk of a near-term recession over a few 25 basis point rate hikes is beyond laughable. Unless there's some significant shock from a COVID-22, major war, China's economy blowing-up, etc., recession is not in the cards any time soon. I'd recommend focusing on the underlying economy and speaking to/listening to Management teams in a wide variety of businesses ---- I do this every week and it provides a good understanding of how the real economy is actually performing. Also, look at the underlying financial health of businesses and individuals (balance sheets, income, CapEx spending, etc.), health of the financial system, as well as, State Governments and pending new legislation. The facts are balance sheets are strong, business CapEx spending is strong, unemployment is low / consumer wages are up, state governments have significant amounts of stimulus yet to spend, infrastructure spending will kick in later this year, financial markets are very liquid --- and a 20% correction in bonds and/or equities is not going to stop the underlying economy from growing at 2-3% this year (potentially faster depending on the shortages and supply chain). The major constraint to a stronger economy is shortages in labor, certain materials, and the supply chain.

BTW, I don't ask childish questions and I post honest and fair questions. Similar to what I did with your Ford options post. I do have to say I was definitely surprised to hear you didn't know monthly options close on Saturday.

How long have you been a financial advisor?