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Re: hamkypamky post# 367541

Wednesday, 01/26/2022 1:05:04 PM

Wednesday, January 26, 2022 1:05:04 PM

Post# of 430248
I'll just address this part of your post as Im short on time at present

This scenario doesn't even make sense.

1. Why would NVS make a deal for AMRN for $6 for EU alone when they can likely buy the company outright for $8?



If / when Denner gets control of the board ...he will not sell AMRN for $8 a share .

He obviously uses DCF ( discounted cash flow ) , number of sale reps etc needed , overhead infrastructure etc to gauge cost of launching drug , years to peak sales , life of exclusivity etc ....For the EU market .

He will go to NVS and say ...you have these EU reps, infrastructure already in place ...theres no need for me ( AMRN ) to duplicate . They will negotiate estimated 10 yr revenue / margins etc . ...say for example its $10B in EU revenue over 10 yrs .
Denner will say we will sell U the rights to that revenue stream now for roughly $2B ...ie $6 a share
These are just rough calculations .

NVS has no interest in the US portion of AMRN that will likely be tied up in a patent infringement case for years .
If you value the remaining US / ROW portion of AMRN at $3 ...and win on the infringement case will probably double that value
$3 now becomes $6 from selling the EU market and $6 from a win re the patents = $12

The Ceo of NVS will look at the DCF for 10 yrs exclusivity in the EU
He knows he can make money / profit faster there ,then AMRN ever will .
He has existing Cardio drugs already in that market and a well established marketing infrastructure .
His costs to launch Vascepa in the EU will be substantially less then AMRN's ...and his profit margins a lot higher

Kiwi
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