Amarin de-risked.
In biotech investing there are two principle risks 1)the science fails 2) management fails. Anybody looking at #1 at this point with Reduce-it, Jelis, Evaporate, cardiolink, and other smaller studies and case reports would conclude that the science is sound. Amarin has done a truly pathetic job at countering the mineral oil conspiracy charlatans (Nissen). CBB is correct that if Vascepa was owned by a big pharma this issue would not exist. Another failure is that this drug should almost be in the water supply, and at the least standard of care for every at risk cardiac patient. The potential of Vascepa for CAD and where we are now is costing lives on a daily basis. That moral argument may be meaningless to the Street, but I suspect many on this board share that sentiment.
The SP is where it is due to multiple management missteps that for the most part predate KM. Legal strategy has been a disaster and JT can be rightfully faulted for literally betting the company on one judge's opinion. The company had no Plan-b for the US Market if patent protection was lost. Deals with Apotex and Teva all assumed the patents would hold, they did not. Amarin still has no plan-b despite slowly eroding prescriptions. KM is a young, inexperienced CEO and has said that he needs time, for many reasons, not the least is the melting ice cube of value, that is not realistic and is a serious miscalculation on his part. His strategy of grinding it out in Europe and digital outreach in the US has zero chance of success, and the nobody believes the company can execute based on past performance.
Enter Sarissa. They see the potential of this drug in competent hands. Alex Denner knows that he can both profit significantly and better many lives by taking the helm of Amarin. By doing so, the days of GIA delusions of grandeur, and a useless, disconnected BOD are now over. Strategically going forward, Amarin can no longer do something that will further erode SP such as an acquisition or capital raise.
Sarissa certainly has its work cut out for it, but IMO Amarin is now totally de-risked.
