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Saturday, January 22, 2022 11:07:50 AM
Right now the perception is you are in a tube with a lot of other people, some of whom don't take precautions and even get irrationally angry at those that do because "freedumbs." The only way out of that mindset of "I'm booking a trip on a plague ship" is for COVID to become a non-issue.
Well what do we know about viruses? They like to spread quickly and effectively. So most viruses tend to not intentionally kill their host, and when that tends to happen the virus mutates to be less lethal and more transmissible. We've seen a steady decline in lethality and a steady increase in transmissibility.
So here is what is going to be important to signal a turn around. First what comes after Omincron. To date it's the weakest and most transmissible. If the next variant is weaker or Omnicron is the end of the line we are headed for COVID being a common cold style annoyance. The next indicator is what happens in South Africa. First country to be hit with Ominicron and basically now the canary in the mine shaft for the rest of the world. A lot of policy and disease modeling will be based off the data that comes out of there.
We also have signals from other areas of the hospitality industry that the expectation is business will be back to normal sooner than later. A great example of this is Disney with their new Star Wars hotel attraction. Whether it's a good idea or not and priced right to attract families and tourists isn't what I am looking at. What I am looking at is Disney's decision to go ahead with the project. Disney has a history of knowing when to attempt something, and has learned the hard way about poorly thought out attractions during the Eisner years. So for Disney to be confident in moving forward with this 2 night hotel is a signal.
Then of course Disney also operates its own cruise line.
https://disneycruise.disney.go.com/cruises-destinations/list/
What I find interesting is that they are confident enough to book into Halloween of 2022 and are advertising Halloween At Sea. That means they feel it will be safe enough to plan not just the cruises for that time but the special events that go along with the Halloween holiday period. Those are extra costs being sunk in.
The thing to remember about Norwegian is it's debt structure which is currently better than the other cruise lines. Their strong partnership with Caesars Entertainment and relaxed atmosphere. They are usually competitively priced with other lines and have good ports of call.
Any additional debt issues are more likely to be renegotiated than anything. COVID is a temporary problem versus a complete mismanagement of the company. No one is going to want to find themselves in control of a defunct cruise line with a bunch of boats they have to scrap for pennies on the dollar. They can merely extend the life of the loans and wait for operations to continue.
I just see the proposed analysis of doom and gloom as something I would hear on the 700 Club or OANN and not sound financial advice.
Recent NCLH News
- Oceania Cruises Unveils the Next Chapter in Its Culinary Story: Relaxed Yet Refined, The Finest Cuisine at Sea Redefined • PR Newswire (US) • 06/19/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/14/2024 08:16:54 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/06/2024 08:15:11 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/05/2024 06:05:40 PM
- Oceania Cruises Relaunches Personalized Cruise Vacation Guide • PR Newswire (US) • 06/05/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Publishes 2023 “Sail & Sustain” Report Showcasing Progress in Sustainability Initiatives • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/05/2024 12:30:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/03/2024 08:15:18 PM
- Oceania Cruises' Marina Returns to Service After Extensive Refurbishment Including All-New Penthouse Suites in Addition to Three New Culinary Venues • PR Newswire (US) • 05/29/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Oceania Cruises To Bring Newest Ship Allura to Service Early • PR Newswire (US) • 05/21/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Announces “Charting the Course” Strategy and New 2026 Financial Targets; Increases Full Year 2024 Guidance • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/20/2024 12:45:00 PM
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Host 2024 Investor Day • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/07/2024 08:30:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/07/2024 07:01:11 PM
- NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE CELEBRATES TEACHER APPRECIATION WEEK WITH DEBUT OF NEW TEACHER CRUISE DISCOUNT AND FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF ITS 'GIVING JOY' CAMPAIGN • PR Newswire (US) • 05/06/2024 08:23:00 PM
- NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE CELEBRATES TEACHER APPRECIATION WEEK WITH DEBUT OF NEW TEACHER CRUISE DISCOUNT AND FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF ITS 'GIVING JOY' CAMPAIGN • PR Newswire (Canada) • 05/06/2024 08:23:00 PM
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Reports Strong First Quarter 2024 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/01/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Hold Conference Call on First Quarter 2024 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/17/2024 12:30:00 PM
- NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE UNVEILS ALL-NEW CULINARY EXPERIENCES TO DEBUT ABOARD NORWEGIAN AQUA • PR Newswire (US) • 04/16/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Oceania Cruises Announces New 2025-2026 Tropics and Exotics Collection • PR Newswire (US) • 04/11/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Unveils Bold New Vision for the Future with Strategic Long Term Fleet Expansion and Enhanced Private Island Development • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/08/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Oceania Cruises Announces Giada De Laurentiis as Brand and Culinary Ambassador • PR Newswire (US) • 04/05/2024 05:15:00 PM
- Oceania Cruises Offers Free Pre-Cruise Hotel Stay on a Range of Sailings in 2024 and 2025 • PR Newswire (US) • 03/26/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Oceania Cruises Appoints Chef Alexis Quaretti and Chef Eric Barale as Executive Culinary Directors • PR Newswire (US) • 03/20/2024 12:00:00 PM
- S&P upgrades NCL Corporation Ltd.’s credit ratings • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/12/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/11/2024 08:30:42 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 08:10:08 PM
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