Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

After Rett Results, Anticipatory AVXL Purchases

The company will announce topline data from the Alzheimer's trial by 2H 2022.
This will be the most important event in the lifecycle of this company.

Of course, revelation of positive therapeutics by blarcamesine against Alzheimer’s in the ongoing double-blind phase 3 trial will be front-page news; will transform perceptions of the company and its new drug.

But don’t discount the effects of positive Rett syndrome clinical results before that. They will be big.

First, successfully treating girls debilitated with this severe central nervous system disease, of genetic origin, will be noteworthy. No other drug will be as safe and useful. But the far larger outcome will be the validation of blarcamesine’s mechanism of action (MOA). Presently there is still a generalized skepticism that blarcamesine can actually produce, safely, the anticipated therapeutic efficacies. The drug is working in the central nervous system (CNS), targeting very severe, therapeutically-recalcitrant diseases. A diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease tells of progressing mental debilities that universally end in death. To date, nothing much slows or stops that lethal progression. Anavex’s hopes or claims that blarcamesine will slow, stop, reverse, or prevent Alzheimer’s are utterly discounted. Nothing to date has been able to do much of that; only for a time to slow the disease.

Until blarcamesine’s activation of the sigma-1 receptor protein, producing a diversity of health-giving downstream reactions, thereby yielding the slowing, stopping, reversing, or preventing outcomes is demonstrated in a full-sized double-blind clinical trial against a CNS disease, the entire sigma-1 receptor biology of Anavex will continue to be discounted. Too good to be true. Won’t be believed it until it is seen, in real humans, in a large, placebo-controlled double-blind clinical trial yielding statistically-significant therapeutic improvements.

That’s what the Rett results will do; provide an incontrovertible demonstration of blarcamesine’s efficacy and safety against an otherwise untreatable CNS disease. It will validate blarcamesine’s propitious activation of the sigma-1 receptor protein and the consequent restoration of normal neuron functions. Equity investors will not need a degree in biology to understand how the drug can then go on to successfully treat Parkinson’s disease dementia and Alzheimer’s, anticipating those clinical results after the positive Rett results appear.

After the MOA-validating Rett results there will be anticipatory buying of AVXL positions, looking forward to the Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s results a bit later. Equity investors will understand the size of those markets, compared to the scarcity of girls with Rett.