My thoughts:
1. Dr. Missling sounded confident that the adult Rett data would be released soon. Whether its released Q4 2021 or Q1 2022 is irrelevant to the long term investors. Traders may be annoyed, but I doubt Dr. Missling cares too much about them.
2. When the analyst asked if the data would be released by end of Q1, Dr. Missling laughed. It sounded more like a confident incredulous laugh than a nervous, “I’ve just been busted” laugh.
3. This summer’s stock price to $30 may have been the worst case scenario for long-term, impatient investors — especially those who have a lot of Anavex and it’s now one of the largest monetary positions in the brokerage account. Nobody likes to see paper profits evaporate, but stock prices this year across the board have been overly inflated. Is GameStop worth $15B? Tesla worth $4000/pre-split? Of course not. Anavex got caught up in an exploding market, it has a cool story, and people wanted in believing that news was imminent. Probably the same people who bought at $10 in November 2015…
4. Anavex is trading exactly where it should be right now. It has no revenue and no guaranteed revenue, and it’s worth more than a billion dollars. If/when it gets a revenue-producing drug in its pipeline, the market cap will rise to the the intrinsic value in a matter of weeks.
5. Dr. Missling may be waiting until the last minute he can to release data, and additional stock options may be his motivation. Is it unethical? Yes. At the end of the day though, it has no bearing on whether the drug works and little bearing overall in the future market cap. If he can successfully bring a game-changing drug to market, I’ll happily accept a bit of dilution for his personal benefit.
6. Dr. Missling is unlikely to do anything that could send him to jail. Things like, “he’s hiding bad news” is ridiculous. There is a legal obligation to report material information in a timely manner. If you really believe he’s delaying or hiding bad news, collect the evidence and file an SEC complaint.
7. Dr. Missling probably doesn’t know much more than we do if the trials were double-blinded. He may have a more accurate hunch from little things he can glean here or there — but there is a reason he hasn’t done a sneak-peek as some impatient traders here insist that he do. There’s no reason to jeopardize the integrity of the trials this late in the game.
8. If nothing else, hiring new staff and speaking at investor conferences is a sign of confidence. If he knew that he’s holding a bad hand, he’s not going on roadshows —for the record, I wish he’d stop going to these. They’re irrelevant by now, he’s presenting to the same people every year.
9. Dr. Missling does not have any role in whether this drug molecule can successfully treat CNS disease. His competence becomes more important after FDA approval. For now, he’s made all the right regulatory moves. Talking about post-approval plans today is putting the cart ahead of the horse.
