GASX.V Took a long look.
It is very overvalued now. Overhyped during the 2021 global gas crunch and will digest the big run for a while IMO. Serafino the CEO is very astute at dropping nuggets that simply aren't realistic like getting to 200,000 mcfd in a few years (Canacol still isn't there sustainably) and their SINU-9 wells producing at 30,000 mcfd (not realistic, ONE of Canacol's well produced above this for 24 hours from two zones, LT production rate more like 10-15,000 mcfd).
It is Colombia and if you followed Canacol there will be disappointments on drilling timelines, but mostly, pipeline completion and connection timelines. I've looked at retail investor comments on CEO.CA and everyone is so bullish on this stock and have bought into the 200,000 mcfd hype that there will be a big stampede to the exits at some point in 2022 when those expectations aren't met.
I looked at what Canacol trades at on an EV/boepd basis and the market is currently valuing GASX like they are production 36,000 mcfd while they are actually producing nothing.
Near term opportunity would be if their Maria Conchita assets come online at a far lower production level than market anticipated (they are expecting 20,000 mcfd+) OR it turns out they actually can't sell their gas at US 7.00 to 7.50/mcf like Serafino was promoting and this fact becomes another highly promotional point.
I will own at some point in 2022 most likely but will wait for a big sell off when the global winter gas market chills out. Stock will probably come down with that as most of the SINU-9 wells won't be drilled yet.
The SINU-9 assets could be a company maker so I'm following.
