Cycle Trading

[Duma]

Waiting for M65 to flatten out has been a real issue with this pb because coming off the bottom was so quick.

I know you asked about TQQQ, but first let me address SPXL.

From 11/1 to 11/24, 18 days (11/24 is where prices broke below the channel) the average absolute gain per day was +.3%.

From 11/26 to 12/7 that average increased to 1.5%, but yet the sum of gain was 0. Each day prices reversed and big.

 
 Date	     SPY Gain	 Abs 
 		 
 11/26/21	-2.2%	2.2% 
 11/29/21	 1.2%	1.2% 
 11/30/21	-1.9%	1.9% 
 12/01/21	-1.1%	1.1% 
 12/02/21	 1.5%	1.5% 
 12/03/21	-0.9%	0.9% 
 12/06/21	 1.2%	1.2% 
 12/07/21	 2.1%	2.1% 
 		 
 Avg     	 0.0%	1.5%

So when prices jumped 1.2% on 12/6 (Mon), that just fit in with what had been going on. However for SPXL, that did cause M65 to actually even turn up and therefore generate a buy. Then the market gains 2% (SPY) yday, so far so good.

However for TQQQ, the signal for me did not come until yday. So I went long at the open, since was I gone at the close yday. So far the market has not really moved, but the day is young.

I haven't seen any evidence of a wave 2, so I expect some more short term volatility.

Note I did a smallshort, but in the end it gained me nothing.