A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ls7550]

Hi Tom

JD's reported ...

Short Term (18 Months)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 51%

is in the same ball park as my long term AIM of S&P500 real price that is suggesting 56% cash against a lump sum amount being added to the S&P500.

That can be followed up with a AIM variant that follows all buy trades but ignores actual sell trades other than increasing PC by half the indicated trade value amount (Vealie), monthly reviews, to load that cash into stocks over a period of time.

De-risking the addition of a lump sum can make a significant difference to mid/longer term outcome. Load all in at a peak and mid/longer term rewards can be relatively low. Such relatively bad outcomes typically follow a period of when stocks have made fast/large gains and since 2010 the S&P500 has seen annualised total returns of around 16% (i.e. relatively fast/last gains).

Clive.