UPDATE 10/17/21: Speculation as to what happens between now and SNO, 11/18/21.(This alphavestcapital.com commentary was first published at the comment site of a recent Seeking Alpha blog post on NWBO (link below) .
An appropriate valuation of NWBO can be addressed one way as just a question of math: Dc Vax L for GBM alone should generate $3-5 billion in revenues(25,000 plus new cases annually) . Revenues from 13 solid tumors should be $3.9 billion, and revenues from 10 combination therapies with Keytruda (MRK) should be $2.5 billion .That’s roughly $10 billion. Proprietary vaccines, with a 90% manufacturing margin, commonly get valued at 10x revenues.So getting to a $100 billion market cap is conceivable.
What about the current stock price? The stock at $1.29 represents a $1.7 billion valuation. At at 12/31/20, the stock was $1.40.Since then there’s been alot of derisking:
1)The U.K.MHRA certification appears to be days/weeks away. Such certification amounts to a stealth commercial approval for the U.K. Patients that can get DC vax L per month increases from 4 to 45($100 million in annual revenues).If all goes well for a year, the patients served per month is scheduled to increase to 500, or $1 billion in revenues annually.
2) The FDA appears to be on out ahead of NWBO endorsing the use of external controls.
3)Cognate, NWBO’s North American contract manufacturer, has been bought by CRL, a world class biologic manufacturer .
4) In recent months,NWBO’s lead investigators(Liau, Ashkan, Cloughesy, Quinones-Hinajosa) have endorsed the satiety and efficacy of DC Vax L. On May 2, 2021, Dr.Ashkan updated the 6/1/18 blinded data study, stating that 1/3 of the patients were living 7-8 years.SOC treated patients live 16.3 months on average. https://open.spotify.com/episode/68Dkypq2S27mN2e03wWFt
So, what’s holding NWBO ’s stock down?
1)A reclusive, very non promotional, CEO,
2) An OTC markets listing;therfore NWBO is not a “listed “stock.
3)The listing , and sparse cash, and unrevealed phase 3 trail data, makes the stock institutionally noninvestible .
4)Other things holding stock down: no research coverage because they don’t take investment banking services. Also, funds that are holding the stock generally don’t file 13-F’s disclosing holdings for OTC traded companies.
WHY IS NWBO A BARGAIN ?
1) A stealth commercial approval is within days of being granted the the U.K.’s MHRA.
2)A series of positives are about to be announced at and leading up to a major near-oncology conference:
a)a scientific publication of NWBO’s phase 3 trial.
b)multiple presentations at the upcoming conference by the trial’s lead investigators.
c) there have been hints that the UCLA-Keytruda-Dc Vax l combo trial is a success.
3) Nwbo has annual revenue potential of $2-10 billion.That’s free cash flow of $1-8 billion annually for 10 years.A 20x free cash flow multiple could be realized.
4) The accuracy of the above valuation potentials for NWBO will be validated, or not, by what large Pharma /Biotech companies are will to bid for NWBO, post scientific publication. Discounted for the present value of future cash flows, the bid sizes will most like be 50% of the AVC(alphavestcapital.com #7 Model Portfolio) stated values.