Sunday, October 17, 2021 11:50:14 AM
An appropriate valuation of NWBO can be addressed one way as just a question of math: Dc Vax L for GBM alone should generate $3-5 billion in revenues(25,000 plus new cases annually) . Revenues from 13 solid tumors should be $3.9 billion, and revenues from 10 combination therapies with Keytruda (MRK) should be $2.5 billion .That’s roughly $10 billion. Proprietary vaccines, with a 90% manufacturing margin, commonly get valued at 10x revenues.So getting to a $100 billion market cap is conceivable.
What about the current stock price? The stock at $1.29 represents a $1.7 billion valuation. At at 12/31/20, the stock was $1.40.Since then there’s been alot of derisking:
1)The U.K.MHRA certification appears to be says/weeks away. Such certification amounts to a stealth commercial approval for the U.K. Patients that can get DC vax L per months increases from 4 to 45($100 million in annual revenues).If all goes well for a year, the patients served per month is scheduled to increase to 500, or $1 billion in revenues annually.
2) The FDA appears to be on out ahead of NWBO endorsing the use of external controls.
3)Cognate, NWBO’s North American contract manufacturer, has been bought by CRL, a world class biologic manufacturer .
4) In recent months,NWBO’s lead investigators(Liau, Ashkan, Cloughesy, Quinones-Hinajosa) have endorsed the satiety and efficacy of DC Vax L. On May 2, 2021, Dr.Ashkan updated the 6/1/18 blinded data study, stating that 1/3 of the patients were living 7-8 years.SOC treated patients live 16.3 months on average.
https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-018-1507-6
https://open.spotify.com/episode/68Dkypq2S27mN2e03wWFtw?autoplay=true
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So, what’s holding NWBO ’s stock down?
1)A reclusive, very non promotional, CEO,
2) An OTC markets listing;therfore NWBO is not a “listed “stock.
3)The listing , and sparse cash, and unrevealed phase 3 trail data, makes the stock institutionally noninvestible .
4)Other things holding stock down: no research coverage because they don’t take investment banking services. Also, funds that are holding the stock generally don’t file 13-F’s disclosing holdings for OTC traded companies.
WHY IS NWBO A BARGAIN ?
1) A stealth commercial approval is within days of being granted the the U.K.’s MHRA.
2)A series of positives are about to be announced at and leading up to a major neuro oncology conference:
a)a scientific publication of NWBO’s phase 3 trial.
b)multiple presentations at the upcoming conference by the trial’s lead investigators.
c) there have been hints that the UCLA-Keytruda-Dc Vax l combo trial is a success.
3) Nwbo has annual revenue potential of $2-10 billion.That’s free cash flow of $1-8 billion annually for 10 years.A 20x free cash flow multiple could be realized.
Recent NWBO News
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/03/2024 08:01:40 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/13/2024 08:01:24 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 09:06:07 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2024 08:30:09 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/02/2024 02:42:28 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/30/2024 11:49:38 PM
- Biophma Announces Exclusive In License for Dendritic Cell Technology, Sending Shares Higher • AllPennyStocks.com • 06/17/2024 04:40:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/04/2024 09:11:16 PM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/03/2024 09:22:55 PM
- Form PRE 14A - Other preliminary proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/22/2024 08:13:36 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/10/2024 09:04:57 PM
- Form NT 10-K - Notification of inability to timely file Form 10-K 405, 10-K, 10-KSB 405, 10-KSB, 10-KT, or 10-KT405 • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 10:04:38 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/02/2023 01:31:35 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/16/2023 10:11:54 PM
- Epazz, Inc. (OTC Pink: EPAZ) ZenaDrone Demonstration to Defense Departments of UAE and Saudi Arabia • InvestorsHub NewsWire • 11/15/2023 12:19:31 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/09/2023 09:30:39 PM
- Epazz, Inc. (OTC Pink: EPAZ) US Navy Collaboration ZenaDrone 1000 • InvestorsHub NewsWire • 11/09/2023 01:00:34 PM
- Epazz, Inc. (OTC Pink: EPAZ) US Navy Collaboration ZenaDrone 1000 Extreme Weather Demo • InvestorsHub NewsWire • 11/07/2023 12:29:43 PM
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