guessing at bottoms
is a tricky thing,as you know.
As the rally peak at 19.80 was coming back down, I was looking for a bullish support step to hold at the basic Fib retrace zone. That zone was 18.50-18.15-17.70 area.
I was stretching that down to 17.60 and watching the price action. Price moved into that zone and then plunged down to 17.40 and that was a breach for me in the track pattern. The bounces zig zagged in the retrace zone but fell to lower lows. 17.20 then fell to 17.06. I was looking for the 17 to hold but we see this week how it broke below that. The entire set of moves down below the 17.60 area was no longer looking bullish to me, and the steps around 17.00 I expected to see it fall into the 16's like it did. But while AVXL was continuing down, the S+P and indexes were bouncing back up, so today's bounce might move upward better if buyers lose their fear. We got a 1 dollar move basically, and the rally targets might be looking at 19.00-19.30 target area. But below that a bearish resistance target is around 18.25 to watch for.
I do craft my charts relying on the formula patterns of Fibonacci. It gives me a consistent template to plot with and use as a barometer of sorts.
Watching this downwave from 19.80 to 16.70 ,a 3 dollar retrace to the bottom zone again. One can start to call it a Range Pattern as much as anything.
If this 16.65 becomes a finished bottom,the first bounce wave of 1 dollar shows a projected target to finish around 19.30. but there are some strong resistance targets along the way that could cap the rally. 18.00/18.30/18.65/19.00
---------------------------------------------
But beyond the current chart picture, I have been more concerned about the greater stock market and global dangers of market crash that could happen if the global powers intend to do that. It is a real concern. So I'm watching the China realty company Evergrande, watching for a collapse of the 3 Gorges Dam ,followed by collapse of Bitcoin, and triggers like war events, political events,etc. sometime in October. maybe next week? The S+P and other indexes made a good recovery bounce this week. AVXL appears to be lagging a step behind them in the bounce. and the distance . We need to see more good follow thru for AVXL to at least reach 18.30
