Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Keeping track of the zeros.

If what you suggest actually becomes reality (and AVXL remains independent), then it is downright scary to think how high of a market cap AVXL might eventually realize!

Well, with my rather moderate, long-term AVXL holding, based upon my understandings of cellular biology, supported by the abundance of both murine (lab rats and mice) and human studies of blarcamesine, I fully expect that either the FDA, or the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) will in a year or two approve the use of blarcamesine. That will first be for Rett syndrome, but after the results from the big phase 3 Alzheimer’s clinical trial reveal the drug’s phenomenal therapeutic outcomes (and safety), yes, what I just proposed for blarcamesine will be realized.

Across the Western World there are tens of millions who are destined to suffer from Alzheimer’s. But many other tens of millions (well, hundreds of millions), as they age, entering late middle age, will be vulnerable. How many, for a few bucks a day, for two or three days each week, would diligently pop a blarcamesine pill with breakfast, so as to confidently prevent the onset of Alzheimer’s (and other senile dementias)?

Privately (I don’t speak with my wife about any of this; she knows that I own “a few of those Alzheimer’s stock shares”), I’ve tried to guestimate the potential metrics of my AVXLs. It’s best done with a spreadsheet program. Whenever I start punching in the data, I have to widen the columns; too many digits, zeros, to fit.

I first start with a reasonable number of Anavex Life Sciences Corp shares. Today, there are apparently 75,710,000 authorized or outstanding AVXL shares. I like to be conservative in my calculations; so presume there are/will be 100 million (100,000,000) shares, among which dividends will be distributed, and the market capitalization (shares times equity price) will be calculated.

Then, of course, one must estimate the number of people taking blarcamesine each day, for each of the several CNS diseases it will be treating (or preventing). Simply, do a web search for these data. “How many people have [the disease]?”

Those data will have to go on different lines, in different cells of the spreadsheet, for each geographic region and disease.

Then, the big question; how much will a single dose of blarcamesine bring to Anavex Life Sciences Corp? Lots more lines and cells.

Lastly (for me, personal information) how much of Anavex’s annual income revenues will “drop down” and be distributed as dividends? Lots more cells in the spreadsheet.

But, in every case, in either best case scenarios (approvals for multiple diseases), or in the case of, say, only one, Rett syndrome, I will be well-rewarded. For the best case scenarios, both treatment and prophylaxis of Alzheimer’s, and perhaps Parkinson’s, it takes the spreadsheet to keep track of the zeros. I have to activate “Comma” formatting; then, try to understand the presented numbers. For dividends and share prices, I activate the “Currency” format. Lots and lots of zeros.

All of this anticipated wealth, when it is realized, some years away, will go to my estate, to my wife and children, and also to the public benevolence programs of my church. I pray, that for my family, the funds will not be corrupting; will be used appropriately and benevolently.

My greatest desire, however, is for millions upon millions to reap the profound benefits of the Anavex drugs. Nothing better than that. May it happen. I think it will.