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Re: smith199 post# 5476

Friday, 09/17/2021 12:59:09 PM

Friday, September 17, 2021 12:59:09 PM

Post# of 7836
As I suspected - the weekly status report you posted on Sept 9 did not fully reflect the impact of Ida on production

sept 9 -

Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Released Sept. 9, 2021, Data for week ending Sept. 3, 2021

Full Report with Graphs/Tables: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf

Data Overview: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

HIGHLIGHTS

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.


sept 13 -

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.


That's a 4X jump in drawdown, week over week

also from your post on Sept 13

From operator reports, it is estimated that approximately 43.60 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is shut in. BSEE estimates that approximately 51.61 percent of the gas production in the Gulf of Mexico is shut in..


As production is still ramping back up, I think we'll see another week of 3-4 million barrel drawdown on inventories

also a note - the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was tapped immediately to keep the refineries that were operating fully supplied which means that it will be replenished at some point and it is possible that it had a significant dampening effect on the price hike in crude, at least temporarily

WTI - $72 currently

spec

- Foglifter -