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"The Future Favors the Bold." - Dr. Thomas Frey

https://kokfoundation01.medium.com/dr-thomas-frey-interview-91595c35ac9c

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[Interview] Thomas Frey, a futurist who joined 'Medium', "The future is advantageous for the bold"

Thomas Frey, Director of Da Vinci Research Center / Medium Global Technical Advisory Group

[Interview _ Blockchain Today reporter Han Ji-hye]

English Translated


Dr. Thomas Frey is currently the director of the 'Da Vinci Institute', a futuristic think tank located in Westminster, Colorado, USA , and is a global celebrity with the nickname of the best futurist by Google. He, who has been active on the global stage as the owner of one of the most sharp insights in the field of futurology, recently joined the global technology advisory group of Medium, a blockchain company also known as the KOK PLAY team.

In this regard, Blockchain Today interviewed Dr. Thomas Frey to hear about his future prospects and his relationship with Medium and Cockplay.


It is an honor to be interviewed by Google's most influential futurist in the world. This is a question related to COVID-19, which is the most urgent situation recently. Corona pandemics such as delta mutations are getting worse despite the development of vaccines, how to diagnose the current pandemic situation

The coronavirus can be said to be the most costly crisis in human history. People in the business world are familiar with disruption. However, there has never been a situation comparable to the current coronavirus pandemic. The cost of the pandemic exceeds the cost of World War II.

Suspension of current business activities and resuming them in a few months does not solve the problem. The coronavirus is an event that has completely changed the world, and people are not prepared for it. Making top-down decisions, such as shutting down business activities (which seems to imply the lockdowns imposed in the UK, etc.) is bound to have huge unintended consequences. One of the unintended consequences is job turnover, which is currently taking place on the largest scale in history. The decision to quarantine has given people time to think, and people have pursued a more meaningful and purposeful life. Changing jobs and careers is the process of achieving those goals.

The coronavirus has created a situation known as contact phobia. This deeply entrenched paranoia will be passed on to our generation now as well as generations to come. Another unintended consequence is that the coronavirus has become the source of conspiracy theories. Today we live in an era of fake news, fake people, and fake reality. This is a situation in which even those who do not advocate conspiracy theories can accept conspiracy theories.

But the coronavirus has also had a positive side. It's just working from home. Working from home has allowed people to re-determine priorities. He gave life the first priority, and work the second priority. Employers focused on results, and as a result, people value their time. In the past, people have tried to look busy. In fact, it was a waste of time, and in the future, workers will be able to focus on what they really need to do with this situation.
Thomas Frey's books 'Dialogue with the Future' and 'Epiphany Z'.

If you were to pick the 5 most important fields in the future industry, what would it be?

To be honest, it is difficult to narrow it down to five. The global knowledge base doubles every 12 hours. Compared to the past, the know-how, authority, connection, and influence given to individuals have increased. We are producing knowledge and wisdom through videos, podcasts, blogs, articles, books, etc., at an exponential level.

Still, if I were to pick five areas where the biggest changes could be made, they would be autonomous driving, artificial intelligence, drones, CRISPR, and cryptocurrency.

I predicted that autonomous driving would be the technology that would bring about the biggest change in history. Automakers have all made significant investments in autonomous driving technology. We saw that the era of autonomous driving would soon begin. He also realized that a brief negligence could lead to falling behind. In my personal opinion, the ripple effect of autonomous driving will be greater than when the car was first invented. Because it will affect more people in a shorter period of time compared to when the car was invented.

Meanwhile, autonomous driving is being developed as a huge system, and various forms of AI are being mobilized. In that respect, it can be argued that artificial intelligence will bring about the biggest change. In just a few years, a situation may arise in which pregnant women discuss with a genetic engineer which abilities their fetus is best to 'enhance'. Based on CRISPR, scientists have made significant advances in fetal 'editing'. With such 'editing', it is possible to remove problematic genes, thus increasing the probability of removing some diseases and physical abnormalities. It is also possible to create a 'super baby' from this perspective.

When people say 'customized baby', they can think of appearances such as dimples, freckles, and teeth, but customized babies are not limited to just looks. If it is possible to develop and expand a certain ability, a capable genetic engineer will not only be able to create a healthy, strong child, but also a child who adapts well to the situation according to the 'enhancement opportunity' menu. The color of the hair, the shape of the mouth, the length of the eyelashes, the shape of the ears, of course, can make a tall, strong child. And life expectancy is higher than before, and you can create children who are more resilient and more confident. These super babies will grow up to become superhumans. So, what is the value of life that is important to superhumans? Few people really know how powerful these questions are!

We still don't know how to quantify superhuman. And if you can divide the stages of a superhuman (eg, stage 2, stage 3, stage 4), you don't even know how you can divide it. However, a superhuman stimulates curiosity and at the same time gives fear. Earlier, we asked what kind of values ??a superhuman would value in life. Because such questions will change the way we think about human life and will affect the way changes happen in the future. The value of life for a superhuman may be 100 times that of the average person today.

How AI Technology Affects the Education Field

Today, the knowledge and information base of mankind is rapidly increasing. And although not stipulated by law, we have the right and duty to provide this knowledge and information to future generations. However, the tools we use today are not suitable for the task. The current library is not good enough. Schools aren't fast enough to keep up with the changes in reality. And the interface (interface) of technology is insufficient to follow the human mind. But change is happening very quickly. Change needs better people to make it work, and we're entering that world. It is absurd to think that you can suddenly create better results based on an existing system.

Each of us has one body, one mind and one life. If we increase our skills and capabilities, our value on the world stage will increase. In the future, people will see themselves as constantly evolving beings. That means there will be exponential changes in education, training, improvement, and reinvention over the next few decades.

From now on, we will no longer talk about the present, but about the potential.

Speaking of education, we've met enemies, and we're enemies too. Paradoxically, we need to step back so that AI and automation can unlock the potential of real humans. Applying anti-AI to teacher robots will find the fastest way to teach students through new games. Over time, AI will use a conversational interface, learning about students' interests, tendencies, idiosyncrasies, students' preferred tools, and personal reference points. We will also devise ways to engage students in education, even in distracting situations.

AI will figure out the following situations:

• When students lack skills
• What they need to speed up their education
• How and when to conduct the next training
• When students master the subject In

this training curve, individual learning is something we have only dreamed of before. will appear faster than ever. It might be 4x, 6x, maybe 10x faster than learning today. Using this AI learning system, it is possible to finish a four-year university course in 1-2 months. As always, only those who are prepared can take advantage of this. You can take advantage of technology when you're ready to solve a problem that doesn't exist today, a job that uses technology that hasn't been invented yet, or solves a problem you weren't aware of before.

The future is not made mildly and timidly. The future is created by those who dare, those who take on impossible challenges and those who are willing to take risks. As I have said many times, there is great value in the struggle. And humans tend to value only what they can gain through struggle. The future doesn't like complacency. We have a self-sabotage structure built into us, and this structure prevents us from being complacent. If we do not progress, we will only lag behind. there is no middle The future is what we make.


What do you think is the reason for the rapid rise of the metaverse, which has recently become a hot topic? In

2003, Linden Labs' Philip Rosedale and his team released the first-generation Second Life. Second Life is a virtual, online world where users can create avatars in Second Life, travel to remote areas, participate in role-play games, produce and sell products, and interact with other users of Second Life. can exchange

The term 'Metaverse' is derived from the 1992 science fiction novel Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson. Second Life was the first metaverse to get attention from around the world, and it's still active today. Those who actively participated in early metaverse projects such as Second Life, Solipsis, Entropia, and Croquet know that there are limits to doing anything meaningful in a well-defined virtual world. The screen is too small, the resolution is low, the bandwidth is poor, and the loading times are very long. People should beware of bad guys, thugs and stalkers. In the virtual world, people's ethics and sense of responsibility are lacking.

You have to do a lot of typing in the metaverse. In the past, when interacting, typing was necessary. But today, many people have forgotten that fact. But with the coronavirus, a big change has taken place. They are living in quarantine due to the coronavirus. People desperately wanted a way out of reality. The era we are currently experiencing is built around conversational interfaces, and these interfaces are built around most countries and cultures. In addition, the activity of spending time on the metaverse became more natural than in the past, and the metaverse has also been changed so that even first-time users can use it easily. We are wary of being addicted to virtual worlds. But now, the virtual world has become a place to do business, meet friends, and engage in new forms of entertainment. There is something to consider: we tend to overestimate changes that occur in the short term, while we tend to underestimate changes that occur over the long term. I think long-term changes will have a bigger impact.

After the Biden administration took office, ESG (environmental, social enterprise, and governance) emerged. Some view ESG as a fad. What should companies do about ESG management?

Environment, society and governance need to be considered. There will be events that will have a major impact on the planet Earth in the future. Even in such an event, a robust system is needed to sustain the Earth, and few people pay attention to such a system.

The coronavirus was an event that alerted the world. Earth's surface explosions can have significant impacts on Earth. If this happens, the Earth could go back to the Stone Age. If an asteroid hits Earth, there are no words to say how much destruction it would be. Today, technology has advanced, and space-based weapons capable of targeting individuals on Earth are nearly impossible to obtain. In that regard, it is important to secure an absolutely safe mechanism. How can we ensure that such a mechanism is secured?

Wildcard events are both positive and negative. If medical advances cause a major change in the lifespan of mankind, it could actually disrupt the current government system. Or, fusion energy could dramatically change existing energy infrastructure. Such an event is a significant experience, and it will bring about a big change.

In the past, you included cryptocurrency and block chain in the eight industries that will lead the future industry. What will the future of block chain technology look like?

Digital in the past Attempts have been made to create money, and all such attempts have failed. The most important issue is trust. Let's assume that someone created a cryptocurrency called XYZ Coin. How can we trust XYZ Coin? Can you trust that someone won't steal your XYZ coins?

In 1978, Silicon Valley-based computer scientists Leslie Lamport, Robert Shostak, and Marshall Pease began addressing a problem known as the 'Byzantine General's Dilemma'. The 'Byzantine General's Dilemma' is a mathematical problem that could be solved with the advent of Bitcoin and the blockchain that was the basis for Bitcoin. The analogy of sending orders to generals on an ancient battlefield is interesting, but it lacks a significant window of opportunity that such a breakthrough could offer. It was an ambitious project with the goal of developing an end-to-end decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure. Using next-generation blockchain technology to revamp traditional financial use cases such as wealth management, insurance, investment, lending, trading, and settlement will require significant efforts over a long period of time and countless attempts at improvements.

Many people pay attention to financial transactions, but blockchain is not limited to financial transactions. Let me ask you a simple question. What does it mean to 'own' something? Ownership can be defined in a variety of legal ways. But most of us will think that when we buy something, we own it. Relationships with objects change from observers to owners through cash register transactions that take place in the blink of an eye. Ownership also happens when we make, discover, or buy or raise pets or livestock. If so, how long can this ownership relationship last?

In India, a car theft occurs every 6 minutes. Ownership can be lost in the blink of an eye. While all entrepreneurs know that theft is a major problem, some losses are inevitable. However, this attitude is changing. As the security system develops, the number of car thefts has decreased since 1998, and in 2030, as blockchain technology is utilized, there will be no car theft incidents.

By 2030, any product of value will be tracked by tiny electronic sensors. Sensors used in clothes, cars, jewelry, shoes and homes will mainly be used for health care, starting with air quality, but will also be used to alert the 'owner' in case of theft. By 2030, when a product is purchased at a certain cost, the transaction will automatically be assigned to a 'privately owned network'. Small sensors used in products will automatically provide product descriptions, serial numbers, purchase dates, manufacturing details, and more. All of this information will be moved to privately owned networks, which are designed to manage everything we own.

In the past, property was loosely defined as the relationship between us and property. For expensive items such as real estate, buildings, and businesses, legal rights are provided to prove ownership. However, in the case of multiple items such as jewels, legal rights are rarely provided. And it didn't do a good job of tracking ownership of the product after the initial purchase. Hopefully, you will be able to track ownership only when there are donations, gifts, and resales. Goods can increase or decrease in value over time, and it is the market environment that determines this. However, we do not know much about these changes. Think of the middle class who owns houses, cars, boats, equipment, electronics, computers, collectibles, rare coins, jewellery, pets, stocks, bonds, software, and has insurance.

The privately owned network is designed to keep up-to-date on current valuations, historical data, photo and video records and locations. Items that have fallen below their assigned minimum value cannot be detected by radar and therefore cannot be tracked. In addition to tracking the real-time location of goods, the ownership network also tracks changes in the conditions of goods.

If someone damages a car, for example, it will be reported immediately, surveillance cameras and identification sensors will be activated, and officials will be notified. When goods are moved, or when goods are sold, donated or leased, responsibility for the goods is transferred to another person included in the ownership network. The probability of arresting a criminal approaches 100%, and the likelihood of someone committing a crime drops sharply. It's definitely a good thing that theft is gone. However, proprietary networks are not without flaws. As the network evolves, the level of crime will also increase.

An important point is that the next-generation blockchain is scalable. Privacy is important, and the transaction speed is amazing. The transaction speed of the legacy blockchain was not fast. In order to speed up the transaction, a high-performance transaction processing system is required. This is also a major concern for companies. In that regard, the real opportunity lies in the next generation of systems.

An inseparable part of blockchain technology is the cryptocurrency market. Opinions for and against this are still divided. What is your opinion on this?

Assuming I have someone's paper money, such currency is visible and easy to understand. But digital currencies are not like that. The national currency is a currency that actually exists. Cryptocurrency uses a process called mining for scarcity. Recently, negative articles about Bitcoin have been pouring in. This is because much of the authority associated with Bitcoin rests with cryptocurrency miners.

Cryptocurrencies have high market liquidity. And when you record a loss, there is no safeguard to notify the investor. At the same time, price volatility can also generate huge profits. In the case of cryptocurrencies where price volatility is most desirable, the degree of volatility is close to that of the stock market. This means that the volatility of cryptocurrencies is very high. To those unfamiliar with cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrencies may appear to have magical powers (voodoo). And you can't drive the world with cryptocurrencies that only smart people know. In other words, cryptocurrency technology is very complex.

Cryptocurrencies are attractive to those who worry that the government's "money issuance" method and loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates could create long-term economic instability. As with most other new technologies, there are many scammers, hackers, and legal issues in the cryptocurrency world. And cryptocurrencies are not used like real currencies. It is difficult to buy something with cryptocurrency. There are many negative opinions about the national currency. However, there will be several improvements to the national currency before cryptocurrencies become the solution we hope for.

You recently joined as the Global TAB of the blockchain company Medium, also known as the KOK PLAY team. How did your relationship develop? In the

past few years, I have become good friends with Choi Young-gyu about what aspects of Medium you appreciate and what you would like to contribute to. Youngkyu Choi is Chief Architect at Medium. Choi Young-gyu was VP of Samsung in the past. His next-generation blockchain research was quite impressive. Cockplay and Medium merged, which became an important alliance. Mr. Choi Young-gyu suggested me to participate in the advisory board of the merged company. This offer was a very interesting opportunity for me.

Blockchain has become an important part of the world's infrastructure. And the Medium team plays a very important role in this area. Given what I've done so far, I think I can offer a special skill. I hope to give them a new perspective and also to reveal special opportunities that the Medium team may not have considered until now.

Finally, what would you like to emphasize to the readers of the monthly Blockchain Today magazine?

The potential for development of decentralized finance is plentiful. It will evolve faster than most of us would expect. Large financial institutions are optimistic about blockchain. It is also true that there are advantages to decentralized finance. In that regard, I expect that decentralized finance will quickly become a value proposition.

The future favors the bold. This is especially true in blockchain or decentralized finance.

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