Applied Blockchain Inc (APLD)

[KingsKnight]

Grab The Tiger By The Tail...
I honestly get a better vibe on why you maneuvered how you did now. I'm of the belief that when a trader is making large capital expends on the OTC they have to be ever cautious or ever rich. The ever rich have the capacity to sustain bigger Ls, while the cautious trader knows that with large capital small percentage gains [25-75%] are significant dollars & should be taken to further build capital into ones account.

Smaller traders are looking for home runs & grand slams [the 10x-100x] to build to the 6 figure trading accounts. Your position at $1.30 was not a strong price entry, but a large capital investment. Traders can win 2 ways, one being having a great price entry [like dat CoolBeener lol] or investing large capital & looking for small gain, but significant dollar appreciation. With that, in your case you recognized the risk, and had APLD dipped to say $1, your $1.30 would have been a fancy bag. So I get it, sometimes those decisions have to be made. Traders with great price entries will likely be more reluctant to part ways with their shares as likely they KNOW they will not get them back at the price they paid, nor the lot sizes they had prior. Even if say coolbeener had 100k shares at that .008, that $800 investment someone would he paying $175k for that lot position now, so you do not give that up until finality.

As these trading days go by, I am seeing this volume influx, and have to think this ticker has landed on some desks, and the dollar flow through may signal larger investor pool/interest here. On top of that we have Ethereum nearly back at $4k. Crypto investors that are into stocks know what they look for in the successes of the MARA/RIOT types. APLD fits the mold, and with added interest this could move higher even with those shares coming in on the horizon.
If this uplist gets coordinated through an IBank to actually support the bid price, really there may be no need to do an R/S.
I think long holders have to trust the process, trust the space & trust the management. Obviously, management here would rather this get to the price limits for NYSE organically.

As for mega/gamma squeeze, I have to doubt it. On the big boards, yeah short positions get bloated and squeezed get squoze. Here on the OTC, even with this limited share structure, the odds of a short squeeze are minimal. Still. a structured buying program can accumulate, and maybe it would take $5M/8M to gather enough shares to control the float fully. To some that's small change if they have a plan of attack.

For now, I am liking the action. Volume is always something that precedes a price move & we all know how the moves here can go. Hopefully, you'll be back in & if not then you'll ride the ETH wave up to $10K. Good Luck...

Tiger Money Member Level Thursday, 09/02/21 12:45:43 AM
Re: KingsKnight post# 1639
KK - You hit the nail on the head. My average entry price was about $1.30 on several hundred k shares. I added before the S-1 hit. If I was in at .008, the stress level obviously wouldn't be comparable as you point out. Honestly though, if I was in at .008, I would lower my position knowing what i know now with the s-1. I have a rule if you buy under 5 cents and it runs to a dollar, don't get too proud. Also, once a stock gets to dollar that was under 5 cents, it is really hard to match your exponential return you earned by continuing to hold the same stock.

I have been around the OTC for about 5 years now and have been an interest rate derivative trader for a large portion of my life. Therefore, derivatives have taught me to watch my risk CLOSELY. With that, the wild west can be extremely harsh and irrational when it wants or needs to be. I have seen good companies like this one (maybe not as good as this one) drop 50-70% in a day only to return down to the .40 -.50 area. It has happened because:

1. Like it said the otc is irrational sometimes, actually most times

2. Dilution is worse than the devil in the otc, even if it is good dilution. Believe it or not, dilution is good sometimes if the leverage brings in assets with extremely high returns

3. The RS threat. I honestly don't see how we can get to the NYSE without one. But that is where things get very interesting. Although mathematically, a RS has no impact on value, it always leads to selling, especially a lot of it when it happens down here in the jungle. Meanwhile, investors think a stock split is a good thing although mathematically it means nothing. They both go different ways. Unless a short squeeze of epic proportions hits here before the s-1 hits, a RS is inevitable.

Talking about a short squeeze, that is why I have been asking who is buying. After today, anything under 1.50 - 1.70 seems to have this investor step in. Why all the volume all of the sudden? Is someone/some firm testing the pipes for a reason? I bring this up because another B Riley stock, support.com has run from a buck or two to $30 or $40 and has been picked up on CNBC as a meme stock this week. We know with 7.7 million shares, this thing could rip to $100 in 3-4 hours. Maybe I am over thinking that possibility. But again, why the volume? Volume always brings good things.... With that said, my risk management took the conservative side and won't make me hope for a squeeze to accommodate the hundreds of millions of shares coming into the float within the next two months or even as early as tomorrow if the SEC accepts the s-1, although unlikely.....I do know there are a lot of good term investors/partners here too. But that can only explain away about 200-300 million at most. If 300 million, we still have 200 million coming our way....

This sucks because I really like this company and its future. I feel the only thing I am giving up is the chance at a mega squeeze but I can sleep a lot better knowing that than stressing about dilution and how it could wreck this party. Remember, the preferred A and B were to legacy investors and that is the huge chunk of shares that hit the outstanding recently and thaey become tradable when the s-1 is accepted by the SEC. Pref C and D are not selling in my mind upon acceptance.

Only time will tell