NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[JRIII]

Would they really work double time to build a new facility and hire employees if they never planned to release results?? The results will be out soon!

Saw this question posted on Twitter and thought I would answer it here for the benefit of all. The person who posted it thought they were being all smart and clever and had come up with the perfect "gotcha" question to prove that, see, DCVax-L is a success! Well, akshully, it's a really dumb question.

The answer is yes, absolutely they would build a new facility and hire employees if they never planned to release results. After all, if the results are bad, which all common sense indicators suggest they are, then they will need something to do since they won't be selling DCVax-L. Having a full-blown manufacturing operation is actually a very viable business plan, and the CEO has already made it work once before with great success. That is what this delay is all about. They are waiting for certification on Sawston so they can simultaneously announce that while the 16-year-old trial for DCVax-L did not show efficacy (or at least not in a way that they can prove it), they are pleased to announce certification of a new manufacturing facility that will be up and running soon and will be making tens of millions of dollars in no time. Of course, the interesting part of this upcoming press release will be the disclosure of whom will benefit from these tens of millions of dollars. At this time, we just don't know.

This is just another example of the deductive fallacies that pass for solid reasoning when it comes to NWBO. Another example is the alleged "Four Day Rule", which, of course, is utterly meaningless in the context of a company that is perpetually "in the process" of evaluating data and completing a trial. There are no simple logic proofs here except that shareholders are being scammed. The one thing we know is that the people running the company have lied to shareholders repeatedly, and that they are doing it again. Everyone is so focused on the results of this trial, but the trial is a red herring. They have known this trial is a failure for a long time, and so has Dr. LL. That doesn't mean DCVax doesn't work in some applications, and it doesn't mean UCLA shouldn't continue exploring its usefulness. It just means that this trial run by NWBO failed to prove it works, for whatever reason(s). Instead of focusing on a trial that was a known failure years ago, shareholders should be focusing on the manufacturing operation that is close to certification, and they should be asking what it means for them.