Some 8th-grade Anavex arithmetic.
There have been any number of posts laying out potential numbers for Anavex revenues, and how those might connect to shares and dividends. On my spreadsheet, I did some elemental arithmetic, to see how various numbers connect to the AVXLs I own.
First, I wanted to figure out how much of a year’s annual sales revenues by Anavex Life Sciences Corp would be valued by each outstanding share. To do this, first calculate a per share value. Divide the annual revenues datum by the number of outstanding shares (presently, at the full authorized number: 75,710,000).
Then, let's imagine that in 2023 Anavex takes in $20 million dollars in sales revenue. For each share, that would be $20,000,000 over (divided by) 75,710,000. That would be $0.246 per share, a bit over 24 cents.
One's personal value, based upon one's AVXL share position, is calculated by multiplying that per-share datum times the number shares owned.
On a spreadsheet or table, one can visualize the numbers at various annual revenues. Simply create a stacked, incremental list of potential annual revs, from, say, $10,000,000 on up to (but not limited by) $100,000,000.
Then, presume some reasonable “drop down” figure, the percent of annual revenues that drop down, get distributed as per share dividends. If the per share drop down is 20%, multiply the per share annual revs datum times 0.2 (which is 20%). In this case, $0.246 x 0.2 = $0.0492, a bit less than a nickle per share.
Of course, in an early year, say, 2023, when the company is still expanding, with revenues of only $10 or $20 million dollars, there is not likely to be any dividend; all after-costs dollars get re-invested. But at some time in the future, revenues will generate dividends. Use these 8th-grade arithmetic protocols to visualize the new numbers. When blarcamesine (or, later, Anavex 3-71) is treating millions with various CNS diseases, the numbers get big.
Later, if either Anavex drug becomes a standard, near universal middle-age geriatric disease prophylactic, with many tens of millions taking the drug each day, every year, the numbers get pretty astounding.
The most astounding figures, however, are when either Anavex drug, more distantly in the future, is discovered to prevent or treat not only geriatric-onset CNS diseases, but when consumed by young adults they prevent all sorts of other pathologies, such as autism, cardiovascular conditions, cancers, etc.
Will any of this happen? For most (understandably, respectfully), all of the above is risky speculation, upon which no AVXL investment decisions should be made; wait until Anavex actually has some annual revenues, which won’t happen until they get authorization to actually sell one of their drugs.
Personally, I don’t make high-risk stock purchases. I do have a moderate AVXL position, at a per-share cost basis of $2.67. My entire AVXL position has been purchased over many years, all with discretionary money in my budget. If Anavex goes bust, I’m not hurt at all. If it succeeds, as I anticipate, based upon low clinical trial p values, very positive symptomatic suppression results, and uniform and universal safety outcomes, I (well, my estate) will be well-rewarded.
All of these projected numbers are guesses, but informed, calculated ones. With your own calculator or spreadsheet, punch in your own numbers. Interesting, at least, if not informative yet.
Of course, these projective calculations are of little value or application for those who are in the AVXL game to make dollars by trading; buy low, sell high, etc. Takes more than 8th-grade arithmetic to make that work. I’ll let the traders tell their stories on that. I’ll just sit back and watch, until at least 2023, the year I predicted (I think accurately) that would be Anavex’s first year of real revs; when the company’s future becomes secure and assured.
AI
