Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Any resulting new AVXL positions?

3 days ago SAVA was around $118, today it closed at $58.35

The stark reality, for most who held an SAVA position, is that they’ve lost about half of their value; unless, of course, they got out earlier, when the price plunge began.

Question then, is, after suffering big share-price losses, will SAVA equity holders then wish to turn around and buy another CNS drug biotech lacking a marketable drug? For a certain fraction, perhaps large, the SAVA price plunge steers them away from any other, perceived-to-be similar equity.

Unless the details of the Anavex story were closely examined and understood, there is likely to be very little SAVA spillover to AVXL. In fact, if the details of Anavex science were previously known, the person’s Alzheimer’s/biotech equity dollars would already be in an AVXL position.

Like the science of their drugs themselves, investing in start-up biotechs tackling CNS diseases like Alzheimer’s is tricky and risky. Lot’s of failures, to date no real successes. Being able to discern how Anavex and blarcamesine are profoundly different is, itself, tricky. Best done, dare I claim, by scrutinizing the many data-laden posts on this message board.