Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Just a matter of time.

Some ignorantly chose to dismiss facts until some other "experts" review them.

Especially when the “facts” in question push against, are opposite to what the reader wants them to be. In the case of blarcamesine, naysayers, from the start, are personally convinced that blarcamesine simply can’t do anything that both Anavex Life Sciences Corp and the pre-clinical studies claim. Blarcamesine is too good to be true; can’t really work as well as claimed.

Now, this is understandable; inasmuch as literally billions have been spent, unsuccessfully, by Big Pharma firms attempting to treat or cure Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases. Who, then, might be little Anavex, with just a handful of employees, thinking that it has a unique molecule that can do this? Makes no sense.

Not only that, but, unlike virtually every other drug working inside nerves and neurons, the proposed new drug has virtually no side effects of any consequence. The stuff is inordinately safe; which means it must not do much. Safety means inertness. Drugs acting powerfully in the central nervous system are universally dangerous; have side effects that have to be taken into account during treatment.

Next, of course, is the “mice aren’t men” dictum; that preclinical results in murines, lab rats or mice, cannot, should not be extrapolated on up to real humans, with real CNS diseases. They will claim, very accurately, that a multitude of promising drugs, with very positive murine trials, went on to utter failure in human trials. The breadth of data from blarcamesine against trans-genic (human) diseases in murines are summarily dismissed.

Needed, of course, are “real human studies,” in blinded, placebo-controlled trials in humans with accurately-diagnosed CNS diseases. So far, only a few short, incomplete safety and tolerability studies have been done on humans. The data from those are all positive, but, in light of all of the above, must be dismissed.

There will be no data emerging that will change the minds of the Anavex naysayers other than those from the three, on-going clinical trials, a) for Rett syndrome patients, b) for Parkinson’s disease dementia patients, and finally, c) for Alzheimer’s disease patients. Those big clinical trials will be concluding later this year, into all of next year.

Finally, dousing the “Anavex stuff can’t work” pronouncements will be FDA approval of blarcamesine for one of the three CNS diseases. First will be for Rett syndrome. The people who really know the weaknesses of blarcamesine science will immediately point out that Rett syndrome is very different from either two CNS diseases; that “the FDA is not likely to grant approval for them.”

Of course, when blarcamesine gets approved for Rett, both retail and institutional equity investors will be rather impressed. The anticipatory pricing of AVXL shares will continue to sharply ascend. Blarcamesine did work against a CNS disease. Next, the Parkinson’s disease dementia study will conclude, presenting to the FDA confirmatory data that prompts approval of blarcamesine for that disease.

At some point, everyone will wish to own or take an AVXL position. The only data then in question will be eventual the size of annual revenues to Anavex Life Sciences Corp.

Right now, some are diligently, intelligently pondering all of the Anavex information. When they believe the time is right, they will start to accumulate an AVXL position.

Others, after weighing the information, have already begun to take and hold an AVXL position. They believe that they got in early, before the share price begins to sharply ascend.

Lastly, will be those who won’t get in until blarcamesine is actually on pharmacy shelves, being prescribed to treat millions with various CNS diseases.