Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

Wolf,

I don't think any of the competitors are currently pursuing rare pediatric diseases. I do not believe this was originally Dr. Missling's intent, either, as I doubt any of us invested in Anavex because of its involvement with Rett syndrome. However, Dr. Missling saw the writing on the wall with BIIB, SAVA, ANVS, etc and realized that competition was going to be robust in the Alzheimer's space.

Pivoting to Rett syndrome was a short-term setback -- it required time and money being taken away from the Alzheimer's trials -- but in the long-term the priority review voucher was a worthwhile goal. Not because of its monetary value but rather because it offers the one thing money cannot buy -- the ability to be first in line in the increasingly likely scenario that multiple companies submit to the FDA around the same time.

If AVXL is proven to be effective, and if it gets to market first because of the priority voucher, it'll make it increasingly difficult for the competition to retain trial participants. If you were taking SAVA's experimental drug and a proven drug became available, why would you continue in that trial when dealing with a degenerative disease?

$100mm to a small startup is a lot of money. But for Anavex, that's maybe 5 million shares in an offering. Better to use the voucher than to sell it for what amounts to peanuts when looking at the bigger picture strategy.