Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Birdbrain Ideas]

I think a good template for one party settling when others don't is Teva in the case before Judge Du.

There are a lot of reasons I could see Health Net settling. First, I don't think Amarin will demand any money. They'll just want a change in Tier to equal generics. And they'll want the wording in some promotional materials changed. Actually, I think it will be a pretty easy negotiation once it becomes clear that Health Net can't win early dismissal. And Health Net is not married to the generics. Parties that are initially paired together often split up and settle separately. And there are lots of incentives for Health Net to settle. The company doesn't stand to benefit financially from its current approach. The litigation costs a lot of money. And the danger of setting a precedent that's never been set before has to be terrifying to its lawyers.

One party asking for a trial separate from the other defendant, as occurred here, is usually a sign that you can settle with one regardless of how the other proceeds.

And a settlement with Health Net would be a huge win for Amarin because it can hold up the deal as an example, a bottom line, for what is expected of the rest of the insurance industry. If Health Net puts Vascepa and generics on the same Tier and makes it clear in their promotional materials that generics only have a skinny label, it will be obvious who won: Amarin.

Meanwhile, it will be much more complicated to get Hikma to settle and Amarin will have much less incentive to do so. I imagine some of Amarin's lawyers really want to put this before a jury. It could be devastating to Hikma.