Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

I don't know what is going to happen to AVXL one way or the other. I'm still in the minority here that I do not think there is even an 80% chance of approval. I'd put the current odds at 50%. But in 2015, I had the odds pegged around 10%. As we saw with a competitor today, unexpected things happen during these trials and sometimes drugs that look promising turn out to be duds later on. Especially with Alzheimer's candidates.

That said, AVXL is up nicely this year. And from its relatively recent lows of ~$2, it's a 10x return. Suckers wager or not, the profits generated (on paper anyway) are real. Even if AVXL is riding the coattails of other drug companies, their success is our success at least in the short-term and vice-versa.

You've been saying for a long time to sell AVXL. When it was at $3, $4, $5, $6, etc...

One of these days you may be right. The historical odds are in your favor. But for the time being, you should at least admit that in the short-term your sentiment has been incorrect. AVXL has presented a good opportunity to make money. There's virtue in humility, Squid.

Good luck with your investments.