NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[JRIII]

In relevant terms 2-3-4 more months is not very long to wait for results.

Where are you getting 2-3-4 more months? Where did the company say that?

See, the problem is that quite literally for the last several years we have been expecting results in the next two, three or four months. That has always been the expectation. Results are coming, if not this month then next month, and if not next month then the month after. That has been the expectation as long as I can remember, and it usually follows the cycle of:

- Surely they will release results by the ASM . . .
- (errant shot buzzer sound)
- Well, if not the ASM, then I expect we'll see a poster and presentation at ASCO . . .
- (errant shot buzzer sound)
- OK, I didn't really expect results at ASCO, but that's because they've been gearing up for a profoundly touching and moving announcement on National GBM Day . . .
- (errant shot buzzer sound)
- Well, GBM Day was a lot to ask for such a tiny company, especially one that is trying to fight such a difficult battle against the evil forces aligned against them, but I'll bet they are planning to release the data at SNO this year . . .
- (errant shot buzzer sound)

I've been through this exact cycle multiple times. Wash, rinse, repeat. The expectation is continuous, but it has never been fulfilled and it never will be. That's because the people running the company are lying to you. They have been lying for a long, long time. The people running this company have built an exceedingly high expectation among shareholders that extraordinary results are coming very soon (and the shareholders have been willingly complicit in buying into that expectation). Somehow the company was able to create this outsized hope that they are going to save the world from cancer. As far-fetched as that notion is, there are many, many shareholders who have been hanging on for years who believe it is true and that news of this historic development is going to drop any minute.

But see, and here's the rub, the payoff never comes. The cold reality is that the world doesn't often come through when it comes to fantasy fulfillment. The company found out six years ago that the Phase 3 trial was a likely failure, and they decided to hide that information from shareholders. What is happening with this company ever since is a game, and shareholders are the facilitators. The people running this company know they can play this game for infinity, or until the cows come home, because they know that as long as there is even a tiny chance they might drop earth-shattering results, shareholders aren't going anywhere and, indeed, they've been right about that for years now.. "Hey, the trial might have been a failure under the original endpoints, so why don't we change the endpoints?" They also know that by keeping the charade going they can keep raising money and sustain whatever lifestyles they enjoy as NWBO employees.

I predict this game will continue, ad infinitum, until they lose their ability to raise more money. The game will end when the money spigot is turned off. And who knows how close that day is? It could be a week; it could be 2-3-4 months; or it could be years more. We don't know, and neither does the company, but they know they can sustain the waiting game as long as the money keeps coming in, and they know that shareholders will stick around and literally every day keep making statements such as, "In relevant terms 2-3-4 more months is not very long to wait for results."

I've said all along that the relationship between this company and its shareholders would make a remarkable psychological study, and I really believe that. The specific phenomenon is captured to great effect in the Beckett play, "Waiting for Godot". It's a horribly boring play, but then, it's supposed to be. But it is a powerful piece of literature. Worth a read for everyone here.