Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[tootalljones]

Confessions of a Cheese Eater.

"Nobody goes there any more. It's too crowded" - Yogi Berra

I am feeling that it has been too crowded for too long. My shoeshine boy (my eldest son) just gave me some stock tips.....

50 years of data from the Case Shiller formula suggests that THE NEXT 10 YEARS will give a total decade of return of between one and two percent. (not annual, total)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439406-modeling-us-stock-market-expected-returns-part-i

Back then we were called cheese eaters, today we are called whistle blowers and the establishment types hate us.

We know for sure that AVXL is not the general market, but the concern here is that it has an older retail investment base, and we all have been there, letting the big fish jump out of our boat and then it is gone forever.

AVXL has been a life changing experience for so many smart and good people on this board, but remember what another criminal said, "don't get high on your own supply." (Rule #2). Frank's Rule#1 was also noteworthy, "watch out for the other's guys's greed." (Scarface, a movie). There are two skill sets involved in the stock market, and they are very different, making money the first, keeping money is the second. If you keep it, your life is changed forever. It is better to have money than not have it. Few have both skill sets and we cannot afford at our ages to give it all back, to let the big fish jumpp out of the boat. Time for so many in this stock, at this time, is the enemy.

Whether I am a canary in a coal mine, a cheese eater, a modern whistle blower....-- remember the madness of crowds. The good gets tossed out with the bad, happens every time, as the crowd has trouble in times of panic and desperation.

One last thought. What accounts for a CAPE Of 38, its current number which is essentially the highest in stock market history (except for the internet). I have always wondered about crowd behavior, flocking.

One thing seems clear: it is the willingness of crowds to believe in the Big Lie. During the Tulip mania those investors believed for sure in a big lie (I do not care to know what it was); during the late 1990s internet mania, i remember the series of Big Lies, that the public let themselves believe in to own stocks with a CAPE of 55-!.....that the internet would bring in a Nirvana like existence, a dream land or dreamward that nobody could quite foresee but was surely coming, and if you website had a bunch of "eyeballs" looking at it, then the money was just around the corner. ..This was the digital equivalent of the late 19th century railroad mania, its physical world counterpart: The railroads would crisscross the land permitting free access to unlimmited land and unlimited commerce and unlimited land ownership that would take place 500 or 1000 or 1500 miles away. This physical nirvana was surely coming.

So figure out today's Big Lie, pushed by the Financial community to "the masses" (a comfy college professor phrase). A fairy godmother fed, nobody need worry of debt, even a pandemic is easily swept aside, earnings will stay at 10% or even 15% next year, probably even higher, never mind the low starting base. never mind the 100 million people now out of labor force, the official citizens, never mind the other 35 unofficials...never mind the election, never mind the arizona audit, never mind everything, the stock market will go up and up regardless of what the CAPE graph is suggesting and even if it does not, the alzheimer sector is a new frontier just the railroads that all went bust a hundred and fifty years ago. That one became known to history as the railroad mania of the 1870s.

After all, the financial industry says stay invested at all times, nobody can predict a recession, never mind that is what they said in 1999 and 2008, where Joe retail lost 70% of his portfolio, and if in technology, over 80%...........

Because all of a sudden, people wake up one morning, and they all know the big lie they have been believing in, for so long, was just a con they promoted, and used to make money and promoted it to others as well, and they start to sell at that moment.

There are ancillary lies of course as well: NEVER MIND ALL INFORMATION, WARREN SAYS STAY INVESTED, AND AFTER ALL, WE ARE ALL SORT OF MINI WARREN'S WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT..a great salesman that guy.

NEVER MIND THE CHEESEEATERS who are so irritating, and have some hidden motive, just because they sold.

but for those over 60, in 1999 and 2008, they never came back at all, th ey did not have the time, they were booted out of the markets forever

Nobody gets out alive almost. Things that cannot go on, do not go on.

greed will destroy you, it is time to be a man.

Be a snob like me, or a cheese eater, hate me, but you older guys and gals, try to be a big winner for once against the stock market. People will ignore warnings.

"They Only Learn Who Suffer." -- Aristophanes

"I know what's eatin ya."

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