Poor Man -,
RA decisions are mitigated by circumstances regarding the hold, lack of full enrollment in SOC/placebo and multiple RAs. FDA has egg on their face from Covid so any foot dragging on this breakthrough would really be concerning, especially to a president whose son passed away from GBM or to a journalist who might remind him if FDA hesitated. NWBO has gained extraordinary leverage in this last year.
Recurring risk is not the same as one time binary risk and yes, I look both ways before crossing. The value for D can’t possibly be realized in just an up front payment, unless that payment looks more like a merger than a buyout, but rather over time and Linda knows this. At the 2018 ASM they talked about the true value of the platform not being approached until NWBO price was in ascendancy so I wait for the first big jump then will watch to see who wants to bet against Direct and who knows that the haircut they are about to receive is not one they want and may leave them in position to be bought out or merged into by others to regain position.
The news Linda has bottled up and will share will astound and the value of D may be more about survival of companies as they currently exist for some including many small biotechs than just another product to peddle. What price do you put on that? The shake out will be extensive so those who want shorting targets will have lots of opportunities especially if Merck presses everything forward quickly with the synergies they provide. Couple all of this with what Wes Christian has planned for manipulators and the shake out might seem like the big one has hit. Best wishes.
