Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[santafe2]

Interesting article from The Energy Forum regarding COP. I'm out of this one as I just don't feel the love as a stock holder. If I was a company executive, I think I'd be excited about this 10 year plan as it's structured for 3% growth, a 3% dividend and 5% share buybacks.

Were the dividend and share buybacks reversed, I'd be more interested as I'm more of a bird-in-the-hand investor. The 5% in the bush may, or may not, find it's way back into the share price. For shareholders I see this as an 8-9% a year investment if there are no serious environmental roadblocks.

The biggest risk is that COP has extensive exposure to Alaskan oil. The Biden administration is currently backing the Willow project, but if this is delayed or stopped that's about 600MM barrels of oil COP will have to find somewhere else and at a similar cost which seems unlikely.

ConocoPhillips