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Re: Toofuzzy post# 45388

Thursday, 07/01/2021 9:44:45 PM

Thursday, July 01, 2021 9:44:45 PM

Post# of 47133
Hi Toofuzzy

AIM works good enough


Indeed

AIM of real S&P500 price since 1871 used to let AIM settle, and then from 1929 ...

saw cash reserves rise and fall in a appropriate manner in reflection of highs/lows. Such as early 1980's it was appropriate to be stock-heavy, 1999 highs it was better to be stock-light ...etc.

Compared to had you just constant weighted to the same average stock/cash that AIM averaged (near 50/50)

yielded over a 1% difference i.e. AIM's timing/weighting did OK

For end of June figures US inflation is running at near 5% so 1.05^(1/12) = 1.0041 increase in CPI index value, so whilst nominal S&P 500 price is up, in real terms its pretty much unchanged and as such AIM is still indicating around 63% cash as being appropriate.

Clive

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