Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Clinical metrics not yet relevant.

So how good was the PDD/PD data? It kind of suprised me that not that much has been discussed about the data. P- values , secondary endpoints, etc.

Understand, there was, and will be very little public (or online) "discussion" of any of the data metrics of this, or any other blarcamesine clinical study. Very few know what they represent, and even fewer regard them as essential controllers or effectors of the AVXL share price.

Many of us here know the significance of the very positive findings in both of the recent Anavex announcements. But few others do. Obviously, many who purchased AVXL shares yesterday, on the basis of the PDD clinical results, thought the share price would ascend. Today, it regressed. Newbies came in with the prospect of a day-trade. Get in, yesterday, and sell off today; take the day-trading profits.

Think of it. If a day-trader can average just a 2% gain each day, on trades like today's AVXLs, he doubles his money every 36 trading days. Work out what $10,000 then turns into at the end of such a day-trading year.

The AVXL share price, presently, is controlled by traders, not stock investors. When they see something happening (even though they have no idea of what the underlying science means) they jump in, ready to get out with a small profit. No hanging around. Day-trading.

The stark reality is this. Until Anavex gets authorization to sell a drug somewhere, for some medical indication, short-term day trading will be in control. But once the FDA (or TGA, Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration) authorizes the sale of blarcamesine, everything will change. Day-traders, being day-traders, will still be going in and out. But the majority of Anavex investors will be looking over the horizon, to the corporate financials a few years out. There won't be oscillations around a $20 bill.

The clinical data, in every regard, are extremely positive. Notice, none of the expected or usual Anavex naysayers have deliberated in any way about the deficiencies of the PDD outcomes. They can't; they are all very positive.

Key is this, those will be the base numbers upon which FDA approval will be based. If the FDA wants "further supportive data," with a next-phase PDD study, there is no doubt what those data will reveal. Authorization to use blarcamesine for Parkinson's disease dementia will happen.

But before that, most likely, blarcamesine will be authorized for Rett syndrome. The game changes. Anavex gets moderate new revenues, and its drug successfully treats an otherwise un-treatable CNS disease, presaging similar successes with PDD and Alzheimer's. The interval of Anavex day-trading will morph into successful stock investing.

A good number of years ago I determined that my AVXL positions would mature, be truly and sustainable profitable sometime in 2023. Still looks to be the case.

Day traders, we wish you the best with AVXL. We Anavex investors, taking long-term positions, will have our rewards when the blarcamesine clinical data are finally considered, allowing the sales authorization of blarcamesine.