Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Projected Anavex Revenues.

I wanna see falconers (updated) spreadsheet that speculates on various revenues from the various indications that pertain to AVXL's pipeline....

I don't see any way I can link or post my spreadsheet projecting potential Anavex revenues from the (now increasing) numbers of diseases and conditions that blarcamesine and the company's other proprietary sigma-1 receptor activators will generate, in say, five years.

Although everyone should do his or her own arithmetic, here are some major Anavex numbers.

First, in my projections I like to do the arithmetic in three ranges, a) the most way out, biggest possible numbers, b) very likely, conservative numbers, and c) the tiniest, low-range numbers possible. The middle numbers are the ones that guide my thoughts.

So, let's start.

Presently, there are between 5.8 and 6.2 million Americans with Alzheimer's. As we Baby Boomers continue to age, that number will only increase, substantially. For convenience, I'll presume there will be (in the U.S.) 6 million Alzheimer's patients whose physicians will be prescribing blarcamesine.

I'll next consider U.S. Parkinson's patients. (For now, no other diseases, nor in any other countries). About a million people suffer from Parkinson's in the U.S.

Because blarcamesine will be so successful, so much better than any existing standard of care (SOC), I'll presume blarcamesine will be used by 100% of those with those two horrible diseases.

Now, the big "who knows?" question. What will a day's dosage of blarcamesine cost (yield to Anavex Life Sciences Corp). Everyone, appropriately, was astonished (well, angered) at the yearly cost of Aduhelm; over $50,000. At that cost, it's over $136 a day.

I'll set the calculations at three potential daily costs: at the high end, $100/day; at the middle range, $50/day, and at the low end, $10/day.

I'll also presume that Anavex Life Sciences Corp will have 100 million outstanding, circulating shares in trade.

So, here are the punched numbers.

[Frustrating, this doesn't allow the posting of a table. I tried to post the controlling cells; they all got lumped together.]

So, here for both diseases, at the highest price for a year's worth of blarcamesine ($100/day), Anavex Life Sciences Corp accountants would record $255.5 billion of income. At a $50/day drug cost, total revenues would be $127.75 billion. At ten bucks for a day's treatment, $25.55 billion.

Again, these data are confined to the U.S. One will have to determine what fraction of the developed world's patients are in the U.S. Total global sales will be at least twice the ones stated here.

Lastly, how much of each year's revenues will drop down to shareholder dividends? Others who know how that works with big pharmaceuticals will have to tell.

Then, even more "lastly," would be revenues if blarcamesine proves to be a useful prophylactic (disease preventer) for any number of specific diseases, or even for the general debilities of normal aging. If that proves out, add one or two more digits.