Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[RedShoulder]

Red, IMO, this is how it will go down.

1) As the efficacy of Anavex's drugs are understood (it only takes the understanding of one drug's MoA to realize the power of the other "family" members), one of the Consortium (Merck and/or Takeda) will bring together 5-8 other BP to digest what the future will be like if Anavex continues to advance forward.

2) Once that realization sets in, i.e., the revenues of BP declines by 70-80% within 10 years, BP decides to react.

3) The question it faces is: Do they split Anavex up for each firm's particular interest or do the companies decide to "Deep Six" all of Anavex drugs?

4) If they act on the former, i.e., acting like a cabal, the SP offered will be lower than if BP wants to terminate the pipeline ... think Keystone. If it were the later, the offer must be overwhelming to get the necessary shares.

5) BP will attempt to move before Anavex receives approval (not disclosure of the results) at any level.

6) This is likely to happen before the end of 2022 as long as BP can thwart/delay any approval by TGA et al.

P.S. I believe when there are significant "technological breakthroughs" looming, American/European business do not play fair, but will do everything in its power to prevent that transformational event from happening.

... and I have the scars, wounds and depleted bank account to prove it.

Powewalker, thanks for your interesting take on "IMO, this is how it will go down."

It's just a matter time of when Anavex will succeed, and when that happens something is indeed going to go down, there is too much at stake in many ways.

I hope Anavex survives intact and independent but it may come down to votes, and there is the weak spot IMO, for some Institutions with heavy holdings taking the fast buck. IMO I think missling wants Anavex to remain independent, and will not be swayed for the dollar offer, it's more than just how much he could sell the company for it appears, I think he wants to take it all the way developing all the potentials leading to being the CEO of a big pharma owning the large CNS lucrative market, .

"BP will attempt to move before Anavex receives approval (not disclosure of the results) at any level."

If Anavex gets Adult Rett FDA approval, or even TGA and/or Europe, that is not in the distant future and leaving little time for developing a plan like that it seems; but when it comes to markets as big as CNS, I do realize the big guys will go for a win any way they can get it.

Where would Blackrock, Vanguard, etc stand?

"... and I have the scars, wounds and depleted bank account to prove it."

I think you will see some healing and repletion soon, starting with the release of the two PRs for this month.