I agree with you and thanks for your recent analysis. The WMILT is a 'liquidating' trust, that 'liquidated' 75/25 "certain" assets as approved by Walrath. This bankruptcy was a Chapter 11 RE-Org.....not Chapter 7 'liquidation' lock stock and barrel. That's why the WMILT was only in allowed to liquidate parts of the WMI whole ....that were up for grabs within Chapter 11. People have conflated the difference for over 10 years. And that's a huge mistake.
Regarding your post yesterday, and I realize you said it was based on BOP's lawsuit number of 600B, not your own. Here's where I've been at for numbers since 2012:
IMO, $600B as stated by BOP, in MBS can not actually be income. Holding companies typically retain 10-15% - maybe a touch more. For comparison, JPMorgan's MBS income participation retention has been 20% at times. The most legit information we have is looking back to WMI’s 2007 10-k which states MBS income participation was about $7B per year. Even at $5B per year Xs 13 years = 65B + $15B interest = $80B.
Additionally, also stated in that 2007 10-K was $220B in "mortgage loans held in portfolio". That means the best qualified and lowest LTV (loan to value) loans that were ‘not securitized’ and sold to others as MBS…but were actually held by WMI as private investment "held in portfolio" where WMI owned the mortgage asset itself AND the monthly interest income that created.
Similarly, Washington Federal here in Seattle is another example of a primarily focused "Portfolio Lender", meaning they only underwrite loans they can afford to keep, instead of selling them off into MBS. The underwriting standards are higher as such, and the interest rates slightly higher as well. They retain the mortgage asset rather than sell it, and they collect 100% of the interest income rather than lose 80-90% with other investors in a MBS situation. And I speak from experience regarding WAFd.
The $220B ‘held in portfolio’ has probably been largely liquidated by refinances, paid off, etc. in 13 years, so although any monthly mortgage income would be increasingly less over the years, the liquidated loans have become cash and would still be there as WMI/WMIH hasn't been underwriting any mortgage loans since 2009. This figure doesn't include monthly compounding interest on the increasingly liquidated cash over the last 13 years....Maybe another $20B minimum?
My Bop number combines what we know about WMI's "MBS participation" and "Loans Held in Portfolio" and is more like $80B in MBS income/interest participation retention + $220B (+ interest) in mortgages held in portfolio = about $300B give or take, which is mostly liquidated into cash, some remaining mortgage assets held in portfolio still producing monthly interest income, and many MBS interest income participation that is still to this day, continuing to produce income as some of these MBS don't expire until 2041.
What's funny is over the last 13 years we've heard that "they will use our money (implied over years of time) to pay us back".. And when I look at it from my perspective, they nearly have. $300B is about what WMI consolidated was worth at the time of the 5th Amendment Taking of WAMU. Which could be why rumors are flying behind the scenes that it's nearly time for the escrow conclusion as BOP has intimated.
