All MA are lagging indicators, but you may be right that is why there is hedge. I am not a prophet and I do not know future so I always consider what If I am wrong and that is the reason to put buy, although ideal situation would be selling calls so while you are waiting one can eat some time premium but ITM calls do not have enough premium, every body is expecting a down market so no buyer of calls hence no premium that is another contrarians indicator for a week, Some one bought 10000 puts for Feb 44 @ 0.70 on ask which give me some confidence that we will close above 44 at expiration.
Just to remind you this is not part of my day trading it is a position trade that means more then few thousand shares.
d-k it takes a lot of courage to post a complete trade, people remember you for long time if you are wrong. With this set up seem like so far one is able to do five trades and make at least some money on each one.