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Gold Price Could Be Setting Up for Closing Price Reversal Top
By: James Hyerczyk | May 19, 2021

• The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to $1868.00.

Gold futures are inching lower late in the session on Wednesday following the release of the minutes from the Fed’s April meeting. The market plunged earlier in the session after hitting a fresh four-month high as the cryptocurrency market collapsed. Today’s rally fell short of a major 50% level at $1894.50.

At 19:22 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1867.70, down $0.30 or -0.02%. This is down from an intraday high of $1891.30. Rollover to the August futures contract on Thursday.

Gold futures slipped from a four-month high as investors digested news that there was a group of Federal Reserve officials open to talking about tapering bond purchases. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar rose after the minutes were released, pressuring dollar-denominated gold.


Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the downside on Wednesday.

A trade through $1891.30 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1808.40.

The minor trend is down. The minor trend turned down when sellers took out $1863.50. This shifted momentum to the downside.

The main range is $2112.70 to $1676.20. Its retracement zone at $1894.50 to $1946.00 is the primary upside target and potential resistance zone.

The minor range is $1808.40 to $1891.30. Its 50% level is the first downside target.

The second minor range is $1754.60 to $1891.30. Its 50% level at $1823.00 is another potential downside target.

The major support is the 50% level at $1788.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to $1868.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1868.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a hard break into the pivot at $1849.90. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $1823.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1868.00 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into $1891.30, followed closely by $1894.50.

Side Notes

A close under $1868.00 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

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