3-5 years was an estimate. Also the quote ends with the statement that it would first be used in an innovative new product. Which means lots of new tech and a fully fleshed out sense of the product’s need and function. That part could certainly take more than 3-5 years.
So what you’ve got is this: LM ready to be used, but an innovative new product that is going through many phases of development. As the product changes and matures, the needs for LM are changed and clarified. So new tests are conducted, new approaches to manufacturing are tried. Meanwhile the chips are being tweaked, the shape of the electronics is morphing, etc.
It’s a fluid process where the goal,is to have all the parts reach their final form around the same time. But that rarely happens so cleanly. So if it’s glasses it’s entirely possible that most of the LM work is done years before the rest is finalized. The LM design process would continue, but also there’d be lots of waiting.
What we’ve been seeing since 2017 is consistent with this story. Even the way the stock refused to drop lower last summer, almost like someone put a floor on the price and told the broker to buy all shares available at 7 cents without limit. Gotta keep the company alive while you’re waiting fir the rest to come together.
But here’s my one problem: I don’t see why you’d need LM for Apple glasses. It’s light, but so are lots of other materials. For hinges, but glasses and goggles have had non-LM hinges for years without much trouble. It can be form molded, but a similar result can be had by machining other materials.
So what’s the LM-essential function that makes it the best solution?
My guesses are these, but I’m not entirely convinced:
1. Maybe the entire body of the glasses is form molded with cavities perfectly shaped for mini-electronics. here the glasses would look like normal glasses but the electronics would be almost impossibly small and integrated into the frame.
2. Maybe the hinge of the glasses is so small and delicate, but the glasses are otherwise so significant, that only LM could handle it.
3. Maybe LM’s ability to be cast with textures, even holographic textures, is desired. Or perhaps the impossibly beautiful LM gloss shine is wanted.
4. Maybe there’s a second new product that requires LM and it’s a pair with the glasses, so both will be made with the material and Apple will do so to create an elite level,of product notable visually by LM’s use.
5. Ultimately LM does make sense for a foldable phone’s hinge and possibly for a future iPhone’s/iPad’s edge shell and mid frame where all the rest is electronics and glass.
All these things are years away. Goggles will come before glasses. Foldable is two years away at least. We’re looking at 2023-2027 for Apple to use LM in my opinion.
