A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ls7550]

Hi K.

World equity may be overvalued

Today's ceiling can become tomorrows floor. Gold IMO will end the 2020's having done better than stocks. A factor is however that stocks may yet still up-run quite a lot before a crunch does occur. A recent near 20 Dow/Gold ratio for instance could extend up to 40 or more. And when a turn/fall does occur it tends to be harsh and somewhat rapid (in that timescale, perhaps over a few years).

A factor with pushing so hard for inflation and seeing little effect is that tends to get over-cooked and once inflation does start rolling its difficult to brake. Many Central Banks have printed trillions and seen very little movement on inflation, then bam! Suddenly there's too much inflation - yields rise, stock/bond/cash falls, and that can see the Dow/Gold ratio drop to low single digit levels.

Clive